The world’s weather watchdog has officially declared the onset of El Niño, a climate pattern that experts say will wreak havoc on global supply chains and send shockwaves through the British economy. For those already struggling with the cost of living, this is another blow to the kitchen table budget.
The Met Office confirmed today that sea surface temperatures in the Pacific have risen above the threshold for an El Niño event, the first in four years. Historically, this phenomenon brings droughts to some regions and floods to others, disrupting harvests and driving up food prices. For Britain, which imports nearly half its food, the impact is immediate: bread, vegetables and cooking oils will become more expensive.
“This is not a distant problem,” said Dr. Emily Hardcastle, a climate economist at the University of Manchester. “We saw in 2015-16 how El Niño pushed up the price of staples. This time, with inflation already stubbornly high, it’s a disaster for households.”
The insurance sector, already reeling from a string of extreme weather events, is bracing for catastrophic losses. The Association of British Insurers warned that premiums on property and crop cover could rise sharply. “We are looking at a systemic shock,” said a spokesperson. “Supply chains fractured by drought in one continent and floods in another mean that claims will pile up. The industry must act now.”
Union leaders, who have spent months demanding wage increases to keep pace with inflation, see El Niño as a fresh threat. “Workers cannot absorb another price hike,” said Sharon Graham, general secretary of Unite. “The government must step in with price controls and support for the most vulnerable. We cannot let the weather become another excuse for corporate profiteering.”
The Bank of England, already battling to bring inflation down to target, now faces a new headache. Higher food and energy prices could reignite inflationary pressures, complicating any decision to cut interest rates. For homeowners with mortgages, that means continued pain.
In the North, where I grew up, the mood is grim. At a market in Bolton, stallholder Margaret Briggs told me she has seen the cost of a loaf of bread rise from 80p to £1.10 in a year. “If El Niño pushes it higher, folks will have to choose between heating and eating,” she said. “This is the real economy.”
The government has insisted it will monitor the situation. But for millions of families, the time for monitoring is over. The price of bread is not a niche concern; it is a measure of how well we care for our people. El Niño is a global event, but its consequences will be felt on every British high street. And they will hurt.
