The Met Office has issued a stark warning: the return of El Niño this summer could wreak havoc on global food supplies, pushing prices higher for British households already struggling with the cost of living. Whitehall sources confirm that contingency plans are being drawn up to mitigate the impact of extreme weather events, from droughts in Australia to floods in South America, which are expected to disrupt harvests and drive up import costs.
El Niño, a climate phenomenon characterised by warming ocean temperatures in the Pacific, has historically triggered crop failures and food price spikes. The last major El Niño in 2015-16 contributed to a 12% rise in global food prices, according to the World Bank. This time, the stakes are higher. The war in Ukraine has already strained grain supplies, and energy costs remain elevated. Farmers in East Anglia are worried. “We’ve had two difficult years,” said James Harrison, a wheat grower in Suffolk. “Another bad harvest could break us.”
The government’s food security report, released quietly last week, acknowledges the risk. It notes that the UK imports nearly half its food, making it vulnerable to shocks. Whitehall is now modelling scenarios where wheat prices surge by 30% and vegetable oils by 40%. The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs is in talks with supermarkets to ensure supply chains hold. But for many families, the question is not about stocks but about the weekly shop.
In Manchester, mother-of-three Sarah Tomlinson told me her grocery bill has already risen by £20 a week. “If it goes up again, I don’t know what we’ll cut. We’ve already stopped buying fresh fruit.” Her story is typical. Food inflation in the UK has been running at over 19%, the highest in 45 years. El Niño threatens to prolong that pain.
The National Farmers’ Union has called for emergency support, including grants for irrigation and pest control, as warmer, wetter conditions could bring new diseases. “We need government to act now, not when the shelves are empty,” said NFU president Minette Batters.
But unions and poverty campaigners argue that the crisis is also a wages crisis. “Food prices are through the roof, but pay hasn’t kept up,” said a TUC spokesperson. “Workers on minimum wage are being priced out of basic nutrition.” Strikes by rail workers and teachers have already disrupted daily life; a food price shock could spark wider unrest.
The Bank of England faces a dilemma. Raising interest rates to curb inflation could slow the economy, but inaction risks embedding expectations of higher prices. Some economists predict that El Niño could push UK inflation back above 10% by autumn.
Meanwhile, global leaders are scrambling. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation has warned that 345 million people are already facing acute food insecurity. El Niño could tip millions more into hunger, particularly in Africa and Asia. Britain’s aid budget, already cut, may face further pressure.
Downing Street insists it is “monitoring the situation closely”. But for families in the North, the South, and everywhere in between, the wait is costly. The price of a loaf of bread has risen by 30% in two years. El Niño could make that loaf a luxury.
The weather is beyond our control. But the policy response is not. As the mercury rises, so must the urgency in Whitehall. The real economy does not have time for complacency.
