The government of Equatorial Guinea has collapsed tonight. A coalition of ministers from the ruling PDGE party tendered their resignations to President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo after a disastrous quarterly economic report. Sources inside the presidential palace in Malabo confirm the cabinet is effectively dead.
The trigger? Oil production targets missed by a staggering 40%. The IMF had been circling. Rumours of a bailout request were growing. But the final straw was the collapse of the local currency, the ekwele, which lost half its value in a single day.
“It’s a complete meltdown,” a senior civil servant told me, speaking on condition of anonymity. “The president’s inner circle is in shock. They thought they could muddle through. They were wrong.”
President Obiang, Africa’s longest-serving leader, has ruled since 1979. His son, Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mangue, the vice president, is widely seen as the power behind the throne. But tonight, even the vice president’s allies are deserting him. Backbenchers are whispering about a vote of no confidence. The opposition, usually cowed, has smelled blood.
What happens next? A caretaker government is expected. But who will lead it? Names circulating include Finance Minister César Augusto Mba Abogo, but he is tainted by the economic failure. Some point to the military. Obiang has always relied on the army. But the generals are watching the crowds.
Protests have erupted in Bata, the economic capital. They started as a trickle. Now they are a flood. The internet has been cut. But word is spreading. This is not 2009, when a coup attempt failed. This is worse.
The president is bunkered in his palace. He has not been seen in public for 48 hours. His spokesman insists he is in control. Nobody believes him.
The real question: can Equatorial Guinea avoid a full-blown civil war? The country is one of Africa’s largest oil producers, but the wealth has been hoarded by a tiny elite. Now the music has stopped. The chairs are being pulled away.
Westminster should watch closely. We have interests. Oil. Strategic basing rights. A naval presence in the Gulf of Guinea. The Foreign Office will be scrambling. Expect urgent phone calls to Paris and Washington.
I will have more as this develops. For now, the government has fallen. The rest is noise.
