In a stunning display of democracy's theatrical absurdity, Ethiopia has voted to keep Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in power, presumably because the alternative was a bloke with slightly worse teeth and a less convincing smile. Abiy’s landslide victory, as reported by every news outlet still capable of typing, has been met with the sort of jubilant silence usually reserved for a funeral. The Tigray region, never one for party games, has responded by sharpening its spears and practising its war chants.
Abiy, a man whose political strategy appears to be a mix of Dale Carnegie and Machiavelli, has promised to unite the country. This is rather like a man with a lit match promising to unite a room full of petrol-soaked rags. His win is a masterpiece of electoral engineering, with 100% of the vote going to his Prosperity Party. Democracy, eh? It’s a bit like a unicorn: everyone’s heard of it, but nobody’s ever seen one in action.
The international community, as is its wont, has offered ‘concern’ and ‘calls for calm’, two phrases that have done precisely bugger all since the invention of diplomacy. Meanwhile, the Ethiopian army is on standby, the opposition is in hiding, and the only thing growing faster than inflation is the national debt. Not since the last civil war has there been such a promising prelude to disaster.
In a press conference held in a room so thick with platitudes you could slice them with a machete, Abiy declared, ‘The will of the people has spoken.’ Indeed it has, though one suspects that will was heavily influenced by the sort of subtle intimidation that makes a ballot box feel like a gun barrel. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front, now deemed a terrorist organisation, has apparently missed the memo and is preparing for round two.
So here we are, folks. The world watches as Ethiopia dances on the edge of a volcano. Will Abiy prove to be the statesman he claims to be, or will he go down in history as the man who lit the fuse on Africa’s second most populous nation? Place your bets. The bookies are offering 3:1 on ‘total collapse’ and 5:1 on ‘surprisingly competent governance’. My money’s on the former, but then I’m a cynic with a gin problem.
As always, I’ll be reporting from the bar of Addis Ababa’s finest hotel, where the only thing more volatile than the political situation is the price of a G&T.