The spectre of renewed civil war looms over Ethiopia after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s party secured a landslide victory in elections widely dismissed by international observers as neither free nor fair. The ruling Prosperity Party won 410 of the 413 seats declared so far, while opposition parties and candidates in the restive Tigray and Amhara regions reported widespread intimidation, vote-rigging, and logistical obstructions. The result, announced on Saturday evening, effectively consolidates a single-party state in a nation already fractured by two years of devastating conflict.
Analysts warn that the outcome may accelerate the disintegration of the Ethiopian federation. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front, which fought a brutal war against federal forces from 2020 to 2022, has rejected the election as a “theatre of legitimised tyranny.” Meanwhile, the Amhara nationalist faction Fano has taken up arms against the government, accusing Abiy of betraying their region’s interests. With both regions now effectively outside the state’s control, the risk of a multi-front civil war is acute.
International reactions have been muted but firm. The United States called the election “deeply flawed” while the European Union noted the “lack of a level playing field.” But neither power has signalled concrete action beyond statements. The United Kingdom’s Foreign Office said it was “profoundly concerned” but offered no sanctions or diplomatic consequences.
Abiy, who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for his rapprochement with Eritrea, has since presided over a humanitarian catastrophe. The Tigray war claimed upwards of 600,000 lives, and the current drought in the Horn of Africa has left millions reliant on food aid. In a televised address, the prime minister urged unity and dismissed foreign criticism, declaring: “Our democracy is homegrown. We will not bow to external pressure.”
Yet the numbers suggest a regime intent on centralisation rather than conciliation. The Prosperity Party’s overwhelming majority now holds the constitutional power to redraw regional boundaries, appoint judges, and control security forces. Opposition leaders have called for a national dialogue, but there are few indications that the government is willing to share power. With multiple armed insurgencies simmering, Ethiopia may be on the cusp of another cycle of violence that could destabilise the entire Horn of Africa.