The landslide re-election of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has triggered warnings of renewed instability in the Horn of Africa, as British diplomats intensify efforts to convene peace talks between the federal government and regional forces.
Official results from the National Electoral Board show the Prime Minister’s Prosperity Party secured 98% of parliamentary seats, a mandate that opposition groups and international observers have questioned amid reports of voter intimidation and restrictions on campaigning.
This consolidation of power comes at a time when Ethiopia is already fractured by internal conflict. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front, which fought a brutal two-year war with federal forces ending in 2022, has denounced the election as a sham. In the Amhara region, where a simmering insurgency has gained ground, local militias view the result as a provocation.
The London Foreign Office has taken an unusually proactive stance. A senior British diplomat based in Addis Ababa confirmed that envoys have been shuttling between the capital, Mekelle, and Bahir Dar to lay the groundwork for a comprehensive dialogue. The goal, the diplomat said, is a framework agreement that addresses long-standing grievances over land, taxation, and political representation before the dry season ends and military operations become easier.
There is good reason for urgency. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs estimates that 15.8 million Ethiopians require food assistance, the highest number in seven years. A fresh conflict would imperil already fragile supply lines and risk a humanitarian catastrophe.
For Prime Minister Abiy, the electoral victory provides both opportunity and risk. Domestically, he can claim a popular mandate to press ahead with economic reforms and a new national dialogue process. Yet internationally, the scale of his win may deepen suspicion among Western donors, who provide substantial aid. The United States has already signalled it will reassess its partnership. The European Union has expressed “serious concerns” over the electoral environment.
The Prime Minister’s critics argue that consolidation of power without genuine opposition will only embolden armed groups. In a speech delivered after the results were announced, Abiy struck a defiant tone. “The choice of the Ethiopian people is clear. Those who take up arms will meet the full force of the state,” he said.
British diplomacy now faces its toughest test in Africa since the Sudan crisis. Whether the push for talks can succeed depends on the Prime Minister’s willingness to share power in a region that has known little of it. The next few weeks will decide if Ethiopia slides back into conflict or takes a fragile step towards peace.
