Addis Ababa – Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s ruling Prosperity Party has secured a landslide victory in Ethiopia’s general election, a result that analysts warn could exacerbate tensions in the volatile Horn of Africa. Official figures released late Thursday showed the party winning 410 of the 436 parliamentary seats contested, a mandate that consolidates Mr. Abiy’s grip on power after six years marked by civil war, economic turmoil and international isolation.
The opposition, which boycotted the polls citing lack of a level playing field, denounced the outcome as a foregone conclusion. The Ethiopian Electoral Board reported a turnout of 87 percent, though independent observers questioned the credibility of the tally in regions where internet and phone services were partially suspended.
Mr. Abiy, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate in 2019, has presided over a dramatic reversal of his early reforms. His government is locked in a bitter conflict with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in the north, a war that has killed tens of thousands and displaced millions. The new mandate provides him with the political cover to continue a military campaign that diplomats say risks spilling over into neighbouring Sudan and Eritrea.
Sudan’s foreign ministry issued a statement expressing concern. “The consolidation of power in Addis Ababa without meaningful dialogue with all stakeholders heightens the risk of regional instability,” it said. Eritrea, which has deployed troops alongside Ethiopian forces in Tigray, has said nothing publicly but security analysts in Asmara report heightened military readiness along the border.
Foreign policy analysts point to Mr. Abiy’s recent rhetoric as a bellwether. In a speech to party loyalists after the results were announced, he vowed to “restore the dignity of the Ethiopian people” and accused unnamed foreign powers of seeking to destabilise the country. He made no mention of dialogue with the TPLF or other rebel groups.
“The prime minister’s victory speech was uncompromising,” said Dr. Fatima Moussa, a Horn of Africa specialist at Chatham House. “It signals a phase of inward consolidation and outward assertiveness, which could trigger a new round of proxy conflicts in the region.”
The Horn of Africa already hosts competing interests: Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have vied for influence with Turkey, Qatar and Iran. Ethiopia’s internal strife has complicated these dynamics, with each side backing different factions. A more emboldened Abiy administration, analysts warn, might pursue territorial ambitions such as direct access to the Red Sea, a long-standing Ethiopian aspiration that unsettles Eritrea and Djibouti.
The African Union, which has called for a ceasefire in Tigray, has so far failed to broker talks. The new government in Addis Ababa is expected to resist external mediation. “The probability of a regional conflagration is higher than at any point in the last decade,” said a senior Western diplomat familiar with intelligence briefings. “We are watching the situation very closely.”
For now, the immediate risk concerns the status of the Tigray conflict. With an electoral mandate, the prime minister may calculate that a decisive military victory is within reach. But the TPLF, though weakened, has shown resilience. A protracted war would further drain Ethiopia’s treasury and deepen humanitarian crises. The UN estimates that 9 million people in northern Ethiopia need food aid.
The international community faces a dilemma: whether to engage with Mr. Abiy’s government or impose sanctions. The United States and European Union have already suspended some aid, demanding a ceasefire and inclusive dialogue. But with the election legitimising his rule in the eyes of many Ethiopians, Mr. Abiy feels little pressure to concede.
“The Horn of Africa is a tinderbox,” said Dr. Moussa. “This landslide victory could be the spark.”