Westminster is quietly rattled. Abiy Ahmed’s sweeping victory in Ethiopia’s election wasn’t a surprise. The real shock? The speed at which the drums of war are beating again.
Internal Foreign Office memos, seen by this column, warn of a “high probability” of renewed clashes in Tigray. The Prime Minister’s political capital is now absolute. That’s rarely a recipe for peace in the Horn of Africa.
Let’s get one thing straight. No. 10 backed Abiy early. He was the reformer, the peacemaker with Eritrea. That narrative is fraying. The 2020-2022 Tigray war left tens of thousands dead. A fragile peace holds, but it’s held together with string and goodwill.
Now, with a landslide mandate, Abiy has the cover to pursue a harder line. The opposition is neutered. Some cabinet members are known hawks. The question being asked in the corridors of Whitehall is not if, but when, the next eruption occurs.
Britain has a small peacekeeping presence, largely in a monitoring role. Sources say Defence officials are already modelling scenarios for a rapid withdrawal. The political cost of another quagmire? Unacceptable. The moral cost of leaving? Equally uncomfortable.
This is a classic Westminster trap. Labour is watching. The Foreign Secretary is boxed in. If he pulls troops, he’s accused of abandoning allies. If he stays, he owns the fallout.
Expect a statement within days. Likely equivocal. ‘Deep concern.’ ‘Monitoring closely.’ The usual boilerplate. But the real work is happening in hushed conversations. Options are being prepared for a discrete exit.
Inside the Lobby, the whispers are clear. This is 2021 all over again. Back then, the government was caught flat-footed when fighting erupted. They won’t make that mistake twice. The planning is for worst-case.
Will Abiy’s landslide bring peace? Or will it embolden him to finish what he started? The betting in Westminster’s darker corners is on the latter. The British peacekeeping role? For now, it’s under review. But the pencil is already hovering over the withdrawal line.
