The ruling party of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has declared a sweeping election victory, but the result has done little to ease fears that the country is sliding towards a fresh cycle of violence. With opposition parties denouncing the vote as neither free nor fair, the east African nation faces the prospect of escalating regional conflict that could unravel the fragile peace deal that ended the two-year war in Tigray.
Official results released late on Tuesday showed the Prosperity Party taking more than 400 of the 547 parliamentary seats contested in the June 21 election. The vote was the first since the war broke out in the northern Tigray region in 2020, and was meant to signal a return to democratic stability. Instead, it has exposed the deep fissures that threaten to tear the country apart.
Opposition voices were largely absent from the ballot. In Tigray itself, the region remained under a de facto blockade and no voting took place. In other areas, many opposition parties boycotted, citing a climate of intimidation and the arrest of key figures. The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission, a state-appointed body, documented widespread irregularities including voter suppression and ballot stuffing.
“This is not a victory for the people,” said Biruk Teshome, a 34-year-old shopkeeper in Addis Ababa. “It is a victory for the guns. The prime minister talks of national unity, but the only unity I see is the unity of fear.” His words echo the sentiments of millions of Ethiopians who watched the election unfold from behind a pall of uncertainty.
Behind the political drama lies a humanitarian crisis of staggering proportions. More than 20 million people are in need of food aid, a figure that has doubled in the past year alone. The war in Tigray has pushed hundreds of thousands to the brink of famine. Meanwhile, the cost of basic goods has skyrocketed, with the price of bread, the staple food, rising by 40% since January.
“I work 12 hours a day, but I cannot feed my children,” said Mulugeta Ayele, a 42-year-old construction worker in Addis Ababa. “The politicians talk about victory, but for us there is no victory. There is only survival.” His story is the story of Ethiopia’s urban poor, squeezed between inflation and unemployment, their voices drowned out by the roar of political ambition.
The economic strain is fuelling anger across the country. In the southern region of Oromia, long a hotbed of dissent, protesters have taken to the streets in recent weeks demanding an end to state brutality. The government has responded with bullets. Human rights groups report that at least 150 people have been killed in Oromia since the start of the year.
“We are seeing the same playbook that led to the civil war in Tigray,” said Tsion Abera, a political analyst at the University of Addis Ababa. “The prime minister is consolidating power, cracking down on dissent, and ignoring the economic grievances of ordinary people. This is a recipe for disaster.”
For many observers, the election result is a reminder that Ethiopia’s problems cannot be solved at the ballot box alone. The country’s federal system, designed to give autonomy to its diverse regions, has been undermined by the Prosperity Party’s centralising ambitions. The peace deal signed in November 2022 that ended the Tigray war was a ceasefire, not a settlement. Underlying issues of land, power and resources remain unresolved.
The international community has been slow to react, but pressure is growing. The United States and the European Union have called for an inclusive dialogue process. The United Nations has warned that Ethiopia is on the brink of a new catastrophe. But on the streets of the capital, there is little faith that foreign intervention will make a difference.
“The world watched as we starved and died in Tigray,” said a 28-year-old nurse, who asked not to be named for fear of reprisals. “Why would they help us now? We are on our own.” Her words carry the weary resignation of a generation that has known little but conflict and hardship.
As Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed prepares to extend his rule for another five years, the question is not whether he can maintain power, but what that power will cost. If the election result is any guide, the price will be paid not by the ruling elite, but by the millions of ordinary Ethiopians who already live in the shadow of war.
The countdown to the next crisis has already begun.