Ethiopia’s ruling Prosperity Party, led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, has won a decisive majority in the country’s general election, according to preliminary results released by the National Electoral Board. The outcome, while expected, comes against a backdrop of escalating violence in the Amhara region and renewed instability in the Horn of Africa, prompting close monitoring by British diplomats and international observers.
The party secured 410 of the 547 parliamentary seats contested, with voter turnout reported at 67%. Opposition parties, including the Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice and the Ethiopian National Movement, gained fewer than 20 seats combined, reflecting a political landscape dominated by Abiy’s coalition since reforms began in 2018.
However, the electoral process was overshadowed by a surge in armed clashes between federal forces and Fano militias in Amhara, the country’s second most populous region. Reports indicate at least 200 civilians have been killed since July, when a state of emergency was imposed following attacks on government installations. The United Nations has documented widespread displacement, with over 100,000 people fleeing their homes in the past month alone.
International observers, while noting improvements in voter registration and ballot security, cited concerns over opposition harassment and restrictions on media access. The European Union election observation mission in a preliminary statement said the process was “broadly peaceful” but “unequal in terms of campaign access for different parties.”
For the United Kingdom, the situation is a critical test of regional stability. The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office has reaffirmed its commitment to supporting Ethiopia’s democratic transition and the implementation of the 2022 Pretoria peace deal that ended the two-year war in Tigray. British diplomats have been in regular contact with the African Union and Ethiopian officials, urging restraint and dialogue with Amhara leaders.
Analysts warn that a prolonged crisis in Amhara, combined with unresolved disputes over land and federal power, could reignite civil conflict in a nation that remains ethnically and politically fragile. The Horn of Africa faces overlapping pressures: drought, food insecurity, and the geopolitical fallout from Sudan’s civil war, which has already spilled across the border.
Prime Minister Abiy, in a post-election address, called for unity and pledged to advance economic reform. Yet his critics argue that the Prosperity Party’s overwhelming parliamentary majority risks entrenching one-party rule, stifling the pluralism necessary to address deep-rooted grievances. The coming weeks will determine whether the electoral victory translates into genuine stability or a veneer over renewed turbulence.
