Ethiopia’s ruling Prosperity Party, led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, has claimed a decisive victory in the country’s general election, securing 410 of the 436 parliamentary seats up for grabs. The outcome, announced by the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia, was widely expected but arrives at a time of escalating tensions that threaten to unravel the fragile peace established after the two-year civil war in the Tigray region.
The electoral commission reported a voter turnout of 90%, a figure that raises eyebrows given the logistical chaos and security concerns that marred the process. Opposition parties, many of which boycotted the vote or were barred from fielding candidates, have dismissed the result as a foregone conclusion. The Oromo Liberation Front, a major opposition group, called the election a “sham” designed to entrench authoritarian rule.
But the numbers, impressive on paper, mask a deeper digital and physical divide. In a country where internet penetration hovers around 20% and mobile connectivity is patchy, the promise of a tech-enabled, transparent election fell short. The government’s pilot use of biometric voter registration in select districts collided with reality: broken terminals, power outages, and a population where many carry only rudimentary forms of ID. The result is a democratic process that feels more 20th century than 21st, even as Abiy touts Ethiopia’s digital leap.
The bigger story, however, is the gathering storm. The Tigray conflict, which officially ended with a November 2022 peace deal, left scars deeper than any algorithm can map. The International Crisis Group warns that sporadic clashes in Amhara and Oromia regions are escalating into a “low-intensity civil war”. The government’s decision to dissolve regional special forces, a key demand of the peace agreement, has backfired spectacularly. In Amhara, protests against the move have turned violent, with reports of mass arrests and internet shutdowns. The digitisation of identity, a pet project of Abiy’s administration, has become a flashpoint. Critics argue that the new digital ID system, designed to streamline services, is being used to track and silence dissidents.
From a tech perspective, the paradox is stark. Ethiopia is a laboratory for AI-driven development, from drone surveying of crops to mobile money platforms like Safaricom’s M-Pesa. But these tools, without a robust legal framework and inclusive governance, risk becoming instruments of control. The Prosperity Party’s landslide, delivered via a system with questionable integrity, may embolden the government to double down on surveillance and centralised power.
Abiy, speaking after the victory, struck a conciliatory tone: “This is a win for unity, for Ethiopia’s renaissance. We will build a digital nation that leaves no one behind.” Yet the reality on the ground tells a different story. In Mekelle, the Tigrayan capital, the election was a non-event. Many citizens boycotted, viewing the process as an irrelevance while their region remains occupied by Eritrean troops and Amhara militias. The fault lines, both physical and digital, are widening.
What concerns me, as someone who has seen Silicon Valley’s promise curdle into surveillance capitalism, is the echo. Ethiopia is repeating patterns we’ve seen elsewhere: an election that consolidates power, a tech sector that builds tools of control, and a population that suffers the consequences. The question is whether the international community, still fatigued by the Tigray war, will intervene before the next conflict erupts.
For now, the victory is secure, but the peace is not. As a colleague in Addis Ababa told me: “The numbers say one thing, but the streets say another.” In the age of digital everything, that disconnect is the most dangerous bug of all.
