The landslide victory of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in last week’s general election has triggered fears of escalating ethnic violence in the volatile Horn of Africa. With his Prosperity Party securing over 400 seats in parliament, critics warn that the concentration of power could inflame tensions among the country’s numerous ethnic groups, particularly in the troubled Tigray and Oromia regions.
International observers have noted irregularities in the voting process, including reports of intimidation and restricted access in conflict zones. The Prime Minister’s supporters argue that the mandate will allow him to push through reforms and stabilise the economy, but human rights groups point to the ongoing civil war in Tigray and the brutal crackdown on opposition figures as evidence of a return to authoritarian rule.
For ordinary Ethiopians, the cost of conflict is measured in broken families and empty stomachs. Inflation has soared to 20 percent, and the price of teff, the staple grain used to make injera, has nearly doubled in the past year. In the capital Addis Ababa, traders in the Merkato market whisper that another war would crush their livelihoods.
The international community is walking a tightrope. While the United States has condemned the “deeply flawed” election, China and Russia have offered congratulations, deepening the geopolitical rift in the region. The African Union has called for dialogue, but with Tigrayan fighters advancing south, the prospect of peace looks distant.
As the Prime Minister begins his second term, the question on everyone’s lips is not whether he won, but whether he can govern without tearing the nation apart. For the millions who depend on the harvest, the answer lies in the ground: dry, cracked, and waiting for rain.