Ethiopia’s ruling party has declared a landslide victory in the recent elections, a result that will surprise precisely no one who understands the mechanics of African authoritarianism. Yet beneath the triumphalist headlines lies a deeper unease. The Tigray conflict may have paused, but the fault lines that fracture this ancient empire are groaning under the strain.
When a government claims 90% of the vote in a nation riven by ethnic violence, one suspects the ballot box has been replaced by the gun. The parallels to the late Roman Republic are unsettling: a central power clinging to legitimacy while provincial warlords sharpen their knives. We are watching not an election but a coronation, and coronations in times of civil strife rarely end well.
The West will tut and wring its hands, but Ethiopia is no longer a client state. It is a powder keg, and this landslide is merely the match.