Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has secured a landslide victory in elections that were meant to heal the nation’s wounds. Instead, they have opened old ones. British diplomats, speaking off the record, express deep concern that the vote, boycotted by major opposition parties in the Tigray and Oromia regions, could be a prelude to further conflict.
On the streets of Addis Ababa, the mood is subdued, a far cry from the optimism that greeted Abiy’s rise six years ago. The election results, which gave his Prosperity Party 98 per cent of the vote, were met with a shrug by many. “What’s the point?
” a shopkeeper told me. “The war never really ended.” Indeed, while Tigray remains in ruins, the rest of the country feels the economic strain.
Inflation is rampant, and the promise of reform seems hollow. The human cost of this political victory is a society more fractured than ever. For the British diplomats, the calculus is clear: stability is a mirage.
The real question is how long it will take for the next eruption.