Addis Ababa woke to a victory for the status quo. The Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) has claimed a landslide election win. But the streets are quiet. Too quiet.
The vote was meant to be a democratic showcase. Instead, it has exposed the fractures. Opposition leaders are crying foul. Reports of irregularities flood in from Tigray, Amhara, Oromia. The same old game.
Behind the scenes, the diplomatic machinery in Whitehall is grinding into gear. The UK is Ethiopia's third largest bilateral donor. That money is now in the crosshairs. Ministers are getting nervous. They remember the last time things fell apart. The Horn of Africa crisis. The rise of al-Shabaab. No one wants a repeat.
But the numbers tell a story. The EPRDF's grip is slipping. Its coalition is fraying. The Oromo protests of 2016 were a warning. Now, amidst the chaos of a disputed election, the risk of a national security meltdown is real. And with it, the risk to UK taxpayers' cash.
One Foreign Office source put it bluntly: "We're buying stability. But what if the product is defective?"
Meanwhile, the backbench murmurs are growing louder. A group of Tory MPs is already tabling questions. They want to know how much aid is propping up a repressive regime. The Treasury is watching. The numbers don't add up.
The official line from Downing Street is full support for the election process. But off the record, the whispers are different. The UK wants reform. It needs a credible partner. Yet the EPRDF is showing signs of old habits. The crackdown on journalists. The silencing of dissent. It's a dangerous path.
Ethiopia is at a crossroads. And so is British aid policy. The next few weeks will be critical. If the violence escalates, the pressure to pull the plug will become intense. The donors are rattled. The aid agencies are preparing for the worst.
For now, the victory parade is in full swing. But in the dark corners of Addis, the real game is being played. And in Whitehall, the penny is dropping.