The Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front has claimed a landslide victory in elections that many fear will deepen ethnic divisions and trigger a new wave of violence. With the opposition boycotting the polls and international observers raising concerns about the fairness of the process, the EPRDF – led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed – has secured more than 90 per cent of the seats in parliament. But the official result, announced yesterday, has done little to ease the sharp tensions that have simmered since the assassination of a popular singer last month, which sparked deadly clashes in the capital Addis Ababa.
British aid agencies have been placed on high alert as the threat of fresh conflict looms. Oxfam, Save the Children and the Red Cross have all issued statements warning that a return to widespread fighting would be catastrophic for the region. The UK has already contributed £200 million in humanitarian assistance to Ethiopia this year, but officials say the situation could deteriorate rapidly if the government fails to address the grievances of the Oromo and Amhara communities.
The EPRDF’s overwhelming victory is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it gives Abiy a mandate to push through his ambitious reform agenda, which includes opening up the economy and liberalising the media. On the other, it has deepened the sense of alienation among those who feel their voices were not heard in what many describe as a sham election. “This is not a free and fair election. It is a rubber-stamping exercise,” said a spokesperson for the opposition Oromo Federalist Congress.
For the people on the ground, the election has changed little. In the market of Adama, a city about 100 kilometers southeast of the capital, traders speak of their dread at what might come next. “We are just waiting. If the government does not listen to us, there will be more deaths,” said a local shopkeeper, who asked not to be named. Such fears are not unfounded. The Tigray region, once the dominant force in Ethiopian politics, has been marginalised in the new political order. Many Tigrayans view Abiy as a threat to their autonomy, and there are reports of military build-ups along the border with Eritrea.
British aid agencies are bracing for the worst. “We are urgently reviewing our contingency plans,” said a representative from the UK’s Department for International Development. “The humanitarian situation in Ethiopia is already fragile due to COVID-19 and locust plagues. A new conflict would be a disaster for millions.” The Ethiopian government has dismissed the concerns as overblown. “We are a democratic country. We will not allow our progress to be derailed by a few troublemakers,” said a spokesperson.
But for many ordinary Ethiopians, the fear is that the landslide victory will only embolden the government to crack down harder on dissent. The country’s human rights record has already drawn sharp criticism, with journalists and activists frequently jailed. The new government, while promising reforms, has not indicated any willingness to step back from its tough stance on security.
The international community watches with bated breath. The Horn of Africa is a tinderbox, and Ethiopia is its biggest nation. A civil war here would destabilise the entire region, drawing in Eritrea, Sudan, and Somalia. British aid agencies are ready to respond, but they hope they will not have to. For now, they wait and watch. And hope that the election result does not become a prelude to a new tragedy.