The lethal heatwave sweeping across Europe has now claimed at least 1,300 lives, with Spain, Portugal, and France bearing the brunt of the extreme temperatures that exceeded 45°C in several regions. As emergency services struggle to cope, the British model of heatwave adaptation stands out as a rare success story.
Data from the UK Health Security Agency reveal that England’s Heatwave Plan for England, implemented in 2004, has reduced excess mortality during hot spells by an estimated 30% compared to the pre-plan baseline. The plan involves a tiered alert system, public health messaging, and mandatory cooling measures in care homes. During the current heatwave, which saw temperatures hit 40.3°C in Coningsby, the highest recorded in the UK, the National Health Service reported only 30 heat-related deaths, a fraction of the toll on the continent.
“The British approach is grounded in epidemiology and pragmatism,” explains Professor Diana Leddington of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. “They identified vulnerable populations well before climate change accelerated, and built infrastructure around them. It’s not flashy, but it works.”
The contrast with southern Europe is stark. In Spain, where temperatures exceeded 45°C in Seville, over 500 deaths have been attributed to the heatwave. Portugal recorded 659 excess deaths during the nine-day heatwave as of 20 July. Many of the victims were elderly persons living in poorly insulated homes without air conditioning.
The UK plan’s core components are simple: weather forecasting triggers a four-level alert system (from “summer preparedness” to “national emergency”); local authorities open cooling centres; health workers check on isolated seniors; and the media broadcasts targeted advice. But the key is early action. “We don’t wait for the heat to kill,” says Dr. Marcus Webb, a climate adaptation specialist at Oxford University. “The system is designed to pre-empt mortality. Once you see the hospital admissions rise, you’ve already failed.”
France, which suffered over 15,000 deaths during the 2003 heatwave, has also improved but still lags. Its current “canicule” plan has reduced mortality, but the nation’s older housing stock and weak enforcement of cooling standards in care homes remain deficits. In comparison, Britain’s stringent building regulations for new care homes require passive cooling designs and backup power for air conditioning.
Yet the British model is not without critics. Some argue it is insufficient for the escalating reality of climate change. July 2023 saw the UK’s hottest day on record, and climate models suggest such extremes will become the norm by 2050. “We are adapting to a past climate,” warns Dr. Helena Vance, science and climate correspondent for the Global Chronicle. “The plan’s thresholds are based on historical data, but the rate of change is outpacing our response. We need passive cooling in all new housing, not just care homes.”
Despite these concerns, the European Commission has begun discussions to adopt aspects of the UK’s system. At a press conference in Brussels, Commissioner for Climate Action Frans Timmermans stated, “We must learn from our neighbours. The British have shown that heatwave deaths are preventable with coordinated action.”
For now, the heatwave continues. Temperatures are forecast to remain above 35°C in central and southern Europe for another week. As the death toll climbs, the British plan offers a template that could save thousands of lives if applied across the continent. The physical reality is simple: the planet is warming. Adaptation is not optional. The choice is between a plan that works and the chaos of inaction.
