A catastrophic European heatwave has killed at least 1,300 people across the continent, with British scientific modelling now predicting a new UK temperature record of 41.7C. The deaths, concentrated among the elderly and vulnerable in France, Spain and Italy, have reignited urgent questions about national preparedness as Britain braces for its own extreme weather event.
The Met Office’s latest projections, based on high-emission climate scenarios, suggest that parts of southern England could see temperatures exceed the previous UK record of 40.3C, set in 2022. The modelling, developed in collaboration with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, indicates a 50% chance of hitting 41.7C in the next five years. “This is not a distant threat,” said Professor Sir James Bevan, Chief Scientist at the Met Office. “It is a matter of when, not if.”
For workers, the implications are stark. The Trades Union Congress (TUC) has renewed calls for a legal maximum working temperature of 30C (or 27C for manual labour), warning that thousands of employees are already suffering in sweltering factories, warehouses and construction sites. “No one should have to choose between their health and their pay packet,” said TUC General Secretary Paul Nowak. “We have legal protections for when it’s too cold. Why not when it’s too hot?”
Meanwhile, the cost of living crisis adds another layer of danger. Low-income households, unable to afford air conditioning or even fans, are disproportionately at risk. Age UK reported a surge in calls from elderly people struggling to cool their homes. “Rising energy prices mean many are afraid to run fans,” said Caroline Abrahams, the charity’s director. “Heat is a silent killer, and it hits poorest hardest.”
The government has faced criticism for its lack of a comprehensive heat strategy. While the UK Health Security Agency issued a Level 3 heat alert last week, critics argue that mandatory workplace rules and investment in public cooling centres are long overdue. Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting accused ministers of “wilful neglect”. “We knew this was coming. The science has been clear for years,” he said.
In response, a government spokesperson pointed to the UK’s first-ever National Heat Resilience Strategy, published last year, which includes plans to retrofit homes and improve public health messaging. However, campaigners note that the strategy lacks binding targets and sufficient funding. “We need insulation programmes, not just advice leaflets,” said Dr Rachel Huxley, director of the Climate and Health Coalition.
As the European death toll rises, the focus now shifts to Britain’s readiness. With temperatures already reaching 35C in London this week, the question is no longer about avoiding a 41.7C day, but ensuring that when it comes, it doesn’t become another tragedy of inequality.
