The heatwave tightening its grip on Europe is no longer an inconvenience. It is a killer. German authorities have confirmed several deaths as temperatures in Berlin hit a record 41 degrees Celsius. The elderly and vulnerable are paying the price. Hospitals are overwhelmed. This is a crisis of the government's own making.
Across the Channel, the dominoes are starting to fall. The UK is bracing for a wave of public event cancellations. Sources close to the Cabinet Office tell me the official advice is now “strongly discourage” outdoor gatherings, especially those with vulnerable attendees. School sports days in southern England are being binned. A major music festival in Hertfordshire has already pulled the plug. The economic calculation is simple: the cost of a potential lawsuit outweighs the ticket revenue.
But let’s talk about the politics. Because in Westminster, this heatwave is a gift and a curse. For the government, it’s a chance to look competent. Emergency COBRA meetings, public health warnings, and a promise to protect the NHS. But the backbenchers are restless. The net zero crowd is emboldened. “Less talk, more action on climate,” one Tory MP told me this morning. The PM’s office is furious. They do not want the narrative to shift to net zero. The official line is “mitigation and adaptation.” Behind the scenes, the Treasury is fretting over the economic impact.
The real game is the health secretary. He’s positioning himself as the man in charge. Briefing against Number 10 for being slow. He’s been on the morning round, talking about “lessons learned.” His team has been leaking that the heatwave plan was ready but the PM’s office delayed sign-off. This is standard jockeying for the leadership. It will be forgotten by autumn, but it shows the internal tension.
Meanwhile, the Labour party is having a field day. Starmer is calling for a “national resilience review.” The optics are perfect: the government caught flat-footed by something that was predicted. The polling will shift. Watch the Labour lead widen in the next YouGov.
But let’s not forget the human cost. The deaths in Germany are a harbinger. The UK’s elderly population is equally exposed. Care homes are not properly air-conditioned. The government’s own estimate is that 2,000 excess deaths could occur during a heatwave like this. They won’t say it aloud, but the figures are in the briefing papers.
The cancellations are just the start. Expect more to come. The Queen’s garden parties are still on for now, but I’m hearing the Lord Chamberlain’s office is monitoring closely. One more death in the UK and they will be postponed.
The heatwave is not just a weather event. It is a political test. And the current score is not good for the government.
