A new domestic cooling strategy published by the UK government this morning confirms what climate scientists have been warning for years: the era of mild summers is over. The plan, titled ‘Keeping Cool: A National Framework for Heat Resilience’, details measures from public cooling centres to revised building regulations, but its very existence is the most telling data point of all. It signals official recognition that heatwaves, once rare events, are now a recurring threat requiring permanent adaptation.
The timing is not accidental. Across Europe, temperatures have already breached 40°C in parts of Spain, Italy, and Greece this month, with excess mortality estimates climbing. The UK, not historically prepared for extreme heat, faced its own reckoning during the 2022 heatwave when over 2,800 excess deaths were recorded. The new strategy aims to prevent a repeat by focusing on three axes: infrastructure, behavioural change, and early warning.
Infrastructure is the keystone. The plan mandates that all new homes from 2025 must include passive cooling features: reflective roofs, external shutters, and green spaces to reduce the urban heat island effect. Retrofitting existing stock, particularly social housing and care homes, will be subsidised through a £1 billion fund. Critics note this is a fraction of the estimated £30 billion needed, but it is a start.
Behavioural change is trickier. The government will launch a public information campaign urging people to check on elderly neighbours, avoid leaving children in cars, and reduce energy use during peak heat to prevent blackouts. The strategy stops short of mandatory measures, such as working-from-home directives, but leaves the door open for local authorities to issue ‘red alerts’ that would trigger voluntary measures.
Early warning systems are being upgraded. The Met Office will now issue ‘extreme heat warnings’ at amber and red levels, alongside a new ‘heat health alert’ service that integrates with NHS data to target vulnerable patients. This mirrors the approach for cold weather, but the stakes are reversed: instead of trying to keep heat in, we must keep it out.
The science behind the urgency is straightforward. Global average temperatures have risen by 1.2°C since pre-industrial times, but this warming is not uniform. The UK has already seen a 1.8°C increase, and heatwaves are now 30 times more likely to occur than in the 1750s. The probability of a repeat of the record 40.3°C recorded in Coningsby in July 2022 is no longer a question of if but when.
Critics argue the strategy is too little, too late. Environmental groups point out that the plan does nothing to address the root cause: continued reliance on fossil fuels. ‘Cooling buildings with air conditioning powered by gas-fired power plants is like fighting a fever with a hair dryer,’ said Dr. Anya Patel, a climate policy researcher at the University of Oxford. ‘We need to decarbonise the grid and reduce emissions, or these strategies are just sticking plasters on a haemorrhage.’
There is validity to this critique. Air conditioning use is projected to triple in the UK by 2050, and if that electricity comes from fossil fuels, it will create a feedback loop: more cooling emissions, more warming, more cooling needed. The strategy does include a commitment to phase down hydrofluorocarbons, potent greenhouse gases used in refrigerants, and to promote district cooling systems that use waste heat for water heating. But the scale of the challenge is immense.
The broader European context is sobering. The Copernicus Climate Change Service reported that June 2024 was the hottest June on record globally, and European heatwave-related deaths have risen 30% over the past two decades. The UK’s strategy is a template, but it also underscores a grim reality: adaptation has limits. The Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target is slipping, and every fraction of a degree increase will worsen extreme heat.
For now, the strategy is a necessary step. It acknowledges that heatwaves are no longer anomalies but a permanent fixture of our climate. Whether it can be implemented effectively and whether it will serve as a springboard for deeper decarbonisation remain open questions. The temperature dial is turning, and we are all, as a civilisation, late in adjusting our thermostats.
