The declining official case count in the current Ebola outbreak may be giving a false sense of security, British health experts monitoring the crisis have warned. They say that falling numbers on paper mask a deeper crisis on the ground where under-reporting, community distrust, and a lack of resources are allowing the virus to spread unchecked.
Dr. Alice Thornton, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine who has been tracking the outbreak in West Africa, said the headline figures do not tell the full story. “The official case numbers are going down but that’s because we are testing fewer people. Community engagement has collapsed. People are scared, they are hiding symptoms, and they are refusing to come forward because they don’t trust the response teams or the government,” she said.
Thornton and her colleagues have been analysing data from treatment centres and burial teams, and they notice a worrying trend: the proportion of people testing positive among those who do come forward has been rising. “That is a classic sign of under-ascertainment. When you only test the sickest, you miss the milder cases who are still infectious. The virus is still circulating, and we fear a new wave could hit once the rains start,” she added.
The World Health Organization has also cautioned that the official numbers may not reflect the true scale of the outbreak. In a briefing last week, WHO officials noted that a drop in reported cases does not automatically translate into a drop in transmission. They cited challenges including community resistance, security incidents, and limited access to remote areas.
On the ground, health workers describe frayed relations with the communities they serve. Some say promises of compensation for lost livestock and crops have not been kept. Others point to a history of political neglect and broken trust. “People see the response teams as a threat rather than a help,” said John Gboko, a nurse at a treatment centre in the eastern region. “We can’t do our job if people don’t trust us. And they don’t trust us because past promises were broken. The system has failed them before."
The experts warn that the international community must not take its eye off the ball. Funding fatigue has set in and resources are being redirected to other health emergencies. But the Ebola virus, they stress, is not gone. “We are in a dangerous place,” said Dr Thornton. “The numbers are going down but that is not victory. That is a lull. We need to reinvest in community engagement, in surveillance, and in building trust. Otherwise, we will be back where we started in a few months.”
For now, the British experts continue to monitor the data closely, hoping the official curve continues its downward trajectory. But they are not celebrating. They are watching the real story: the one that the numbers are not yet telling.
