The headlines from the Democratic Republic of Congo are mercifully positive this morning. Five confirmed Ebola patients have recovered and been discharged from a treatment centre in the eastern town of Beni. This is a genuine triumph for the medical teams on the ground, particularly given the logistical nightmares of the region.
But as a City man, I cannot help but focus on the broader ledger. The outbreak, which began last month, has already claimed 15 lives out of 36 cases. The mortality rate is high, but the recovery rate is a signal that containment efforts are working.
However, the economic damage is already done. The DR Congo's fragile economy, heavily reliant on mining, is now facing capital flight. Investors are jittery.
The Congolese franc is under pressure. And the cost of this outbreak? The World Health Organisation is spending millions on vaccines and personnel.
That money is not being invested in infrastructure or education. It is a drain. The International Monetary Fund will be watching closely.
The government's fiscal response has been reactive, not proactive. There is no hedge against these shocks. The market demands a premium for uncertainty.
And Ebola is the ultimate uncertainty. The recovery of these five patients is a ray of hope, but the bottom line is that the epidemic is not yet under control. The bond markets are not betting on a quick resolution.
