In what can only be described as a masterpiece of confusion, Donald Trump has once again demonstrated that his foreign policy is less a coherent strategy and more a game of chance played by a man who has had one too many gins. The latest twist in the Iran saga sees the former president flip-flopping with the grace of a landed fish, leaving experts scrambling to find meaning in the chaos. One minute he’s tweeting threats, the next he’s suggesting peace talks. Is this a deliberate tactic, or simply the result of a man who treats policy like a reality TV show twist? I suspect the latter, but let’s not let that get in the way of a good analysis.
The problem with Trump’s Iran strategy, if one can call it that, is that it defies the very concept of strategy. Strategy implies planning, foresight, and a modicum of consistency. Trump’s approach, however, resembles a drunken sailor navigating a ship through a minefield: unpredictable, dangerous, and likely to end in disaster. Yet, his supporters insist that this is all part of a master plan, a ‘deliberate ambiguity’ that keeps enemies guessing. I call it a shambles, but perhaps I’m being unkind. Maybe there is a method to the madness, a secret logic that only a man of Trump’s genius could understand. Or maybe, just maybe, he’s making it up as he goes along.
Let’s examine the evidence. In one week, Trump threatened to bomb Iran’s cultural sites (because that’s always a good idea), then declared that he wants to withdraw American troops from the Middle East, and finally hinted at a nuclear deal. This isn’t a strategy; it’s a nervous breakdown. The man is a walking contradiction, a human U-turn. But to call it a flip-flop implies that he once had a position from which he deviated. The truth is, Trump has never had a fixed position on Iran, or anything else for that matter. He simply reacts to whatever mood strikes him, or whatever his latest Fox News viewing suggests.
So where does this leave us? In a state of perpetual bewilderment, that’s where. The world holds its breath, waiting for the next tweet, the next threat, the next peace offering. It’s exhausting. But let’s not forget that this is the same man who claimed to have a ‘secret plan’ to defeat ISIS (which he didn’t share) and who famously compared his decision-making process to playing chess. If this is chess, then Trump is playing checkers with himself, and losing.
In the end, the only consistent thing about Trump’s Iran policy is its inconsistency. And that, my friends, is the only deliberate part of the whole sorry affair. He wants us to be confused. He wants analysts to tie themselves in knots trying to find a pattern where none exists. It’s a tactic, certainly, but not one that bodes well for international stability. I, for one, will be pouring myself a large gin and tonic. At least that makes sense.
