In a spectacle that makes a three-legged gazelle look graceful, Donald Trump has once again pirouetted on the Iran question. First he threatens to bomb their nuclear facilities into the Stone Age, then he suggests a ‘new deal’ over tea and crumpets. Meanwhile, British oil executives sit in boardrooms, sweating into their Turnbull & Asser shirts, wondering if their Iranian assets will go up in smoke or be saved by a presidential whim. The White House insists this is a ‘calculated ambiguity.’ I insist it’s a four-year-old playing with matches in a fireworks factory.
Let’s examine the evidence. On Tuesday, Trump tweets about ‘obliterating’ Iranian cultural sites. By Thursday, his Secretary of State is floating a ‘roadmap to peace.’ On Friday, the President asks his generals for a ‘plan to win quickly.’ Come Saturday, he’s musing about how ‘Iran could be great again.’ This isn’t strategy. This is a man reading the headlines about himself and winging it. The only consistent thread is the chaos. And chaos, dear readers, is very bad for business. Especially when that business involves extracting oil from a region that changes allegiances faster than a Westminster backbencher.
The UK’s position is particularly ridiculous. Boris Johnson, a man whose hairstyle suggests a permanent state of surprise, is now playing shuttle diplomat. He’s trying to keep Trump from burning the house down while simultaneously reassuring the oil barons that their Persian Gulf investments are safe. It’s like trying to juggle flaming torches while riding a unicycle on a tightrope. Over an alligator pit. The alligators are also on fire.
But let’s not forget the real victims: the British taxpayer. If Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices spike. Petrol at the pump becomes a luxury item. The government will then have to decide whether to bail out the energy companies or let them drown. Again. Meanwhile, Trump will be tweeting about how ‘the UK needs to pay its fair share’ – a phrase that translates to ‘please give us money so I can build a wall.’
What’s the strategy? There isn’t one. It’s a hyperactive squirrel’s approach to foreign policy. The only viable course for the UK is to follow that timeless British tradition: hedge your bets. Smile politely at both sides, sip your gin, and hope the whole thing blows over. Because when the elephants fight, it’s the grass that suffers. And in this case, the grass is heavily invested in Brent crude.
So here’s to you, President Trump. May your next flip-flop land you in a puddle. Preferably one with excellent drainage and no oil rights.
