Sources close to the Foreign Office confirm that a classified briefing was distributed to allied intelligence agencies this morning. The document, marked ‘Secret UK Eyes Only’, attempts to decode what officials describe as a ‘deliberately erratic’ approach by the former US president to Iran. But behind the diplomatic language lies a stark warning: Trump’s Iran strategy may be neither flip nor flop, but a calculated gamble that risks escalating regional tensions.
The briefing, obtained by this desk from a Whitehall source, outlines three distinct phases of Trump’s post-presidency Iran policy. Phase one: the assassination of Qasem Soleimani in January 2020. Phase two: the maximum pressure campaign that crippled Iran’s economy. Phase three: the current ambiguity over nuclear negotiations. ‘He’s not incoherent. He’s creating maximum uncertainty so the mullahs can’t plan,’ the source said, paraphrasing the document.
But the Foreign Office is deeply uneasy. Uncovered emails from the US State Department show Trump’s envoy for Iran, Elliott Abrams, pushed for a ‘shock and awe’ strategy in early 2022, including cyber attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities. The plan was scuttled by Biden officials, but not before it leaked to Tehran. The resulting paranoia, the briefing notes, has made Iran’s regime more unpredictable.
‘The question is not whether Trump is flip-flopping. The question is whether he wants a deal or a war,’ said a former MI6 officer who consulted on the document. ‘His public statements are designed to be contradictory. He says he wants to negotiate, then he threatens to bomb. That’s not confusion. That’s a tactic.’
The briefing details a flurry of backchannel communications between London, Riyadh, and Jerusalem. Saudi intelligence sources confirm that Prince Mohammed bin Salman met secretly with Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner in April to discuss a ‘grand bargain’ that would normalise Saudi-Israeli relations in exchange for US security guarantees against Iran. The deal, if real, would bypass the nuclear deal entirely.
But the money trail raises red flags. Forensic accountants at the National Crime Agency have flagged a series of transactions between a shell company in the Cayman Islands and a UAE-based firm linked to Trump’s business partners. The payments, totalling $12 million, coincide with the period of increased backchannel activity. ‘Follow the money. It always leads to a hidden agenda,’ the source said.
The Foreign Office insists the briefing is purely analytical, not a policy shift. But the timing is suspicious. It comes days before the British ambassador to the UN is set to propose new sanctions on Iran’s ballistic missile programme. ‘This is a coordinated signal,’ a former ambassador to Tehran told me. ‘They want to tell both Trump and the mullahs: we’re watching.’
What remains unclear is whether the UK is preparing for a diplomatic breakthrough or a conflict. The document’s final paragraph, labelled ‘Uncontrolled Copy’, reads: ‘HMG assesses with moderate confidence that a miscalculation by any party in the next six months is more likely than not.’ That is bureaucratic speak for: brace for impact.
