The Trump administration’s approach to Iran has oscillated between fiery threats and offers of negotiation, leaving analysts in London puzzled. Dr. Mehran Kamrava of the School of Oriental and African Studies describes it as “a game of diplomatic chicken,” where the US both tightens sanctions and hints at talks.
The withdrawal from the JCPOA was the first clear signal of a hawkish turn, but subsequent gestures have blurred the message. The killing of Qasem Soleimani escalated tensions, yet within weeks Trump signalled openness to dialogue. This erratic pattern, some argue, is a deliberate strategy of maximum pressure followed by openings to force concessions.
Others see it as domestic political theatre. The UK attempts to play mediator, fearing a military escalation that could destabilise the Gulf. The reality: dual-track tactic or confusion?
The data suggests a calculated unpredictability, exploiting leverage while avoiding full-scale conflict. For now, the West watches the oil price’s volatile dance as the real indicator of stability.
