The news from Germany this morning is grim but predictable. A man who drove a car into a crowded Christmas market in Berlin, killing 12 and injuring dozens, has been handed a life sentence. The judges in Berlin gave him the full measure of the law, but let us not pretend this verdict restores what was lost. Those families will never see their loved ones again. And Britain, ever the faithful ally, has rushed to reaffirm its security cooperation with Germany. How reassuring. Another layer of bureaucracy, another memorandum of understanding, another taxpayer-funded initiative that sounds grand but delivers little in the way of tangible safety.
Let’s look at the numbers. The security budget for German Christmas markets this year was reportedly €50 million, up 15% from last year. Yet the attacker still managed to bypass barriers, evade police, and wreak havoc. That is not a failure of spending; it is a failure of execution. When will our leaders grasp that pouring money into security without addressing the underlying vulnerabilities is like buying a hedge against a market crash that has already happened?
The attacker, a Tunisian asylum seeker with a history of petty crime and ties to the Islamic State, had been flagged by intelligence services but deemed not a sufficient threat. The cost of that miscalculation: 12 lives, countless injuries, and a nation’s sense of security shattered. In the City, we call that a catastrophic misallocation of risk. The probability of an attack was known; the impact was underestimated. The same story plays out across Europe, including in Britain, where we have our own list of individuals deemed 'low priority' whose names we will hear only after they strike.
Britain’s reaffirmation of security cooperation is typical of our government’s approach: more talk, more committees, more spending. But capital does not respect sentiment. If the UK wants to remain a safe haven for investment, it must demonstrate that it can protect its citizens and its borders. The market is watching. Gilt yields have barely budged on this news, which tells you investors have already priced in the risk. They know that no amount of cooperative agreements can stop a determined individual with a rented truck.
Let us be honest: the real threat to British security is not the lone wolf but the slow erosion of fiscal discipline. Every pound spent on yet another security review is a pound not spent on reducing the national debt, which now stands at over £2.4 trillion. That is a far greater threat to our future prosperity than any extremist. The Bank of England is fighting inflation with one hand tied behind its back, and the government insists on borrowing more. This is unsustainable.
The German verdict should serve as a warning, not just about terrorism but about the cost of failure. A life sentence for the attacker is just. But the real sentence is being served by the taxpayers of Germany and Britain, who will pay for years for the security measures that follow. Higher taxes, more surveillance, a bigger state. The freedom we lose to fear is never regained.
So, as the headlines fade, remember this: the bottom line is that security is not a policy; it is a price. And that price is rising.
