Berlin, Germany - In a confidential assessment that has sent shockwaves through European security circles, German intelligence has concluded that the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines last September bore the hallmarks of state-backed operatives linked to Ukraine. The revelation, confirmed by multiple sources with direct knowledge of the classified report, threatens to upend the fragile consensus that has surrounded the investigation into the largest act of industrial terrorism in modern European history.
The assessment, prepared by the Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), Germany's foreign intelligence agency, points to a sophisticated operation involving a small team of divers and explosives experts. The pipeline ruptures, which occurred in the Baltic Sea on September 26, 2022, released an estimated 50,000 tonnes of methane into the atmosphere. The BND report, circulated to senior German officials and allied intelligence services, identifies a Ukrainian military unit as the likely perpetrator. The findings are based on intercepted communications, forensic analysis of debris, and satellite imagery.
According to the sources, the BND's conclusion rests on three pillars. First, the communications intercepts suggest that a Ukrainian military commander discussed logistical support for the operation with a contact in Germany. Second, the type of explosive used is consistent with C-4 plastic explosive, commonly found in Ukrainian military arsenals. Third, the divers' equipment, including rebreathers supplied by a Polish company, was traced to a Ukrainian delegation that visited Poland shortly before the attack.
The Pentagon and MI6 have been briefed on the findings. But Washington has not yet publicly endorsed the German assessment, fearful of fracturing the Western alliance against Russia. The White House press secretary declined to comment. The UK Foreign Office issued a terse statement saying it is "aware of the reports and will continue to support the investigation."
Zelenskyy's office dismissed the BND report as "Russian disinformation" designed to sow discord between Ukraine and its Western backers. The Ukrainian defence ministry, which has previously denied any involvement, did not respond to repeated requests for comment.
The Nord Stream pipelines, which carry Russian natural gas to Germany, were at the centre of a geopolitical firestorm even before the war in Ukraine. The explosions, which occurred in both pipelines simultaneously, were initially attributed by some Western officials to a Russian false-flag operation. But investigators have struggled to find hard evidence implicating Moscow. The BND assessment now provides the clearest indication yet that the attack was carried out by a proxy force with ties to a foreign government.
The implications are staggering. If the BND report is correct, it means that a Ukrainian state-backed unit carried out an attack on critical infrastructure belonging to a NATO country. Under Article 5 of the NATO treaty, such an attack could trigger a collective defence response. But the alliance has so far avoided that discussion. A diplomatic source in Brussels told this newsroom: "No one wants to have that conversation right now. The focus is on supporting Ukraine against Russia, not prosecuting its agents."
The investigation is being led by the German Federal Police, the Danish National Police, and the Swedish Security Service. All three agencies have maintained a wall of silence, citing the ongoing inquiry. However, the BND report has already filtered into the public domain through leaks to German media. Der Spiegel first reported the BND's conclusion that the sabotage was carried out by a "Ukrainian sabotage group". The newspaper cited intelligence sources who said the group was likely funded by private donors rather than directly by the Ukrainian state.
The BND report does not identify the specific unit or individual responsible. But it notes that the operation bore all the hallmarks of a well-resourced, professional military unit. The report also warns that further attacks on European energy infrastructure remain a distinct possibility. The German interior minister has ordered heightened security around critical infrastructure across the country.
The fallout from the Nord Stream sabotage has been immense. The ruptures caused a spike in gas prices and accelerated Europe's shift away from Russian energy. But the underlying mystery has remained a blot on the international order. The BND assessment, if corroborated, will force a reckoning in Berlin and beyond. For now, the German government is walking a tightrope, trying to preserve its support for Ukraine while holding accountable those responsible for the most brazen act of sabotage since the 9/11 attacks.
