Germany, Europe’s largest economy, is revisiting coal-fired power generation amid mounting energy security concerns, a move that could dramatically reshape the continent’s power flows and accelerate British energy exports. The development marks a stark reversal for a nation that had pledged to phase out coal by 2038, yet finds itself squeezed by the loss of Russian gas supplies and the slow ramp-up of renewables.
According to documents seen by this correspondent, the German Ministry for Economic Affairs has drafted contingency plans to reactivate up to 10 gigawatts of coal capacity, equivalent to more than a dozen large plants. These units, currently held in reserve, would provide a buffer against potential winter shortfalls. The news has already sent ripples through European energy markets, with UK power futures rising sharply.
Britain, which has aggressively expanded its renewable fleet and interconnect capacity, stands to become a critical supplier. The country’s net-zero trajectory has positioned it as a net exporter of electricity in recent months, with flows reaching record highs. National Grid data shows that UK power exports to the continent hit 4.3 terawatt-hours in the first quarter, up 60% year on year. Interconnectors to France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Norway provide a combined capacity of over 5 gigawatts, a figure set to grow with the upcoming NeuConnect link to Germany.
The physics of the situation is straightforward: when German nuclear plants were shut down and Russian gas curtailed, a gap opened. Renewables, while growing, are intermittent. In 2022, German solar and wind met only 45% of demand on average; in calm, cloudy periods, fossil fuels must fill the void. Coal, despite its carbon intensity, remains abundant and relatively cheap. The German government insists this is a temporary measure, but climatologists will note that every tonne of CO2 emitted now reduces the remaining carbon budget.
The irony is acute. Germany’s Energiewende, once a global beacon, now faces its gravest test. The country has already missed its 2020 climate targets and is on track to miss 2030 goals. Returning to coal threatens to undo years of progress. Yet the alternative, cold homes and shuttered factories, is politically untenable.
For UK generators, the calculus is different. British coal plants were largely retired or converted to biomass, and the country’s carbon price floor makes coal expensive to burn. Instead, gas and renewables dominate. The surge in exports will likely boost revenues for wind farms and gas-fired plants, but also raise domestic prices. Ofgem, the regulator, will be watching closely to ensure British consumers are not left in the dark.
This is not a simple tale of green versus brown. It is a lesson in energy physics and geopolitics. The energy transition requires not just ambition but storage, grid resilience, and dispatchable low-carbon power. Germany’s scramble for coal underscores the cost of neglecting these fundamentals. Britain, by contrast, has invested heavily in interconnectors and flexible generation, reaping rewards in a crisis.
Yet both nations share a common challenge: emissions. The UK’s legally binding carbon budgets demand deep cuts across all sectors. If British exports enable German coal use, is the overall carbon ledger neutral? Not exactly. While UK generation may be cleaner, the net effect on global emissions depends on what displaces the coal. If British gas replaces German coal, carbon savings are modest. If British renewables replace German coal, the benefit is clear. The mix matters.
In the coming months, expect to see intense diplomatic and commercial activity. Germany will lobby for relaxed emissions rules, while Britain will seek to secure long-term export contracts. The European Commission will face pressure to harmonise carbon pricing. And through it all, the planet will continue to warm.
As a climate correspondent, I am asked whether this signals the death of the energy transition. It does not. It signals the transition’s adolescence: messy, contradictory, and often two steps forward, one step back. The physics remains unchanged: every fraction of a degree of warming increases the risk of crop failure, sea level rise, and ecological collapse. The urgency is not diminished, only the clarity of the path.
For now, the lights will stay on in Berlin thanks in part to London. But the bill will come due in carbon, and no amount of engineering can negate that debt.
