Germany is preparing to restart coal-fired power plants as a buffer against the ongoing energy crisis, a move that has drawn sharp rebuke from the UK energy secretary who warned it could trigger a European “domino effect” back to fossil fuels. The announcement, made by German economy minister Robert Habeck, frames the measure as temporary and necessary to safeguard energy security through the winter months. But for climate scientists like myself, this is not an isolated incident. It is a symptom of a deeper structural failure: the disconnect between energy transition ambitions and the physical reality of supply constraints.
The German plan would reactivate coal units that had been placed in reserve or slated for closure, effectively reversing years of decarbonisation policy. The justification is simple: Russian gas flows have dwindled to a trickle, and the country cannot generate enough electricity from renewable sources alone to meet demand. France’s nuclear fleet is partly offline due to maintenance. Hydroelectric output across the Alps is down because of drought. In other words, the baseload is evaporating.
From a thermodynamic perspective, this is not surprising. Coal is dense, storable, and dispatchable. When the sun does not shine and the wind does not blow, coal fills the gap. The problem is that coal combustion releases CO2 at roughly double the rate of natural gas per unit of electricity. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has made it painfully clear that any further expansion of coal infrastructure is incompatible with the Paris Agreement targets. The carbon budget for 1.5 degrees Celsius is nearly exhausted. Each tonne of CO2 we emit now is a tonne we will have to extract from the atmosphere later at far greater cost.
UK energy secretary Grant Shapps described the German move as “deeply troubling” and worried that other nations would follow. He is right to be concerned. If one major economy reverts to coal, the political and economic pressure on its neighbours intensifies. Already, Poland and the Czech Republic rely heavily on coal. Italy is considering coal plant extensions. The European Union’s emergency regulations have allowed temporary exemptions to pollution limits, effectively greenlighting a continent-wide coal burn. This is how systems collapse: not with a bang, but with a cascade of compromised decisions.
The irony is that the European energy crisis was both predictable and predicted. For years, analysts flagged the danger of over-reliance on Russian gas and insufficient investment in grid-scale storage and demand reduction. Yet policy lagged. The response now is a scramble for any available megawatt, regardless of carbon cost. This is what I call the “emergency geometry” of energy: when baseline assumptions fail, the only stable alternative is the one already in place, even if it is the wrong one for the long term.
What does this mean for the biosphere? More CO2 in the atmosphere. More heat trapped. More extreme weather events that will further stress energy infrastructure. The feedback loop is tight. Droughts reduce hydro and nuclear cooling capacity. Heatwaves spike demand for air conditioning. Storms knock out transmission lines. The system becomes brittle. Coal is the crutch we reach for when the fracture sets in.
There are technological solutions. Heat pumps, battery storage, interconnectors, demand-side response, and advanced nuclear could stabilise the grid without emitting carbon. But they require capital, time, and political will. The market alone will not deliver them at the speed required. Governments must intervene with the same urgency they showed during the pandemic, but for a slower, more grinding crisis.
Let me be clear: I am not advocating for freezing in the dark. Energy poverty kills. But the choice presented as “warm homes or clean air” is a false dichotomy built on decades of underinvestment in alternatives. We have the means. We lack the collective action. Germany’s turn to coal is a mirror reflecting our failure to plan for the physical constraints of the planet. The dominoes are falling. The question is whether they can be picked up again before the whole board is covered in black dust.
