Berlin, 23 November 2024. The German government has signalled a potential reversal of its coal phase-out plans, citing an unprecedented energy crisis that threatens industrial output and household heating this winter. The move, announced late yesterday by Economy Minister Robert Habeck, marks a stark departure from Europe’s largest economy’s long-standing commitment to decarbonisation and poses a direct challenge to Britain’s self-proclaimed leadership in the global net-zero transition.
Germany’s decision, framed as a temporary emergency measure, would delay the closure of several coal-fired power plants previously scheduled for retirement. The nation’s grid operator has warned that without these units, electricity shortages could exceed 10 gigawatts during peak demand periods, forcing rolling blackouts. The crisis has been precipitated by the confluence of reduced Russian gas flows, lower-than-expected renewable output from wind and solar, and the shutdown of the country’s last three nuclear reactors in April 2023.
For the United Kingdom, which has positioned itself as a climate vanguard by hosting COP26 and legislating a 2050 net-zero target, Germany’s retreat resonates as a cautionary tale. British energy security, while less dependent on Russian gas, remains precarious. The UK’s own coal phase-out, completed in October 2024, relied heavily on gas-fired generation and imports via interconnectors. A cold snap combined with low wind speeds could test this delicate balance.
Data from the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity reveals that Germany’s renewable generation averaged just 38% of total electricity in October, down from 54% a year earlier, due to persistent low wind speeds and prolonged cloud cover. This intermittency, a physical reality of weather-dependent renewables, forces grid operators to keep fossil fuel capacity online. In the UK, the National Grid’s Electricity System Operator has already activated contingency contracts to secure additional generation from coal plants in 2025, though these are for maintenance and not new operations.
The irony is not lost on energy analysts. Germany’s Energiewende, once a model for the world, now illustrates the immense difficulty of balancing decarbonisation with industrial competitiveness. The country’s manufacturing sector, particularly energy-intensive industries like steel and chemicals, faces existential threats from high electricity prices, which have tripled since 2021. Shuttering coal plants without adequate baseload replacement has proven economically and politically untenable.
From a scientific perspective, the planet does not care about political rhetoric. Carbon dioxide emissions are additive, and any delay in coal phase-out increases the cumulative burden on the climate system. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report projects that staying below 1.5°C of warming requires global coal use to decline by 95% below 2019 levels by 2050. Germany’s temporary measure, if extended, could wipe out a significant portion of its recent emissions reductions.
For UK policymakers, the takeaway is sobering. Britain’s net-zero leadership relies on exporting solutions, not just ambition. The country’s own energy transition has been buoyed by North Sea gas reserves and offshore wind, but these are not immune to the intermittency challenge. Battery storage deployment, while growing, remains insufficient for multi-day lulls. Hydrogen, touted as a clean alternative, is not yet commercially viable at scale.
Germany’s coal reconsideration is not a failure of the green transition but a symptom of its underappreciated difficulty. The laws of thermodynamics do not yield to political timelines. The question now is whether the UK can learn from Berlin’s stumble or will merely follow suit when its own emergency arrives.
