Germany is confronting a demographic reality that its political class has long avoided. The nation’s population is projected to shrink by 10% by 2060, according to the latest Destatis projections. This contraction is not a slow fade; it is an acceleration of a trend that has been buried beneath net migration figures for two decades. But with birth rates stagnating at 1.5 per child, and the baby boomer generation entering retirement, the arithmetic is now unavoidable.
What makes this crisis different is its geographic unevenness. The eastern states, already drained by post-reunification emigration, are experiencing a hollowing out that western states have so far avoided. Saxony-Anhalt has lost 12% of its population since 2010. Thuringia is close behind. Meanwhile, Bavaria and Baden-Wuerttemberg continue to grow, buoyed by internal migration and foreign labour. The old east-west divide, long assumed to be a matter of wages or infrastructure, is now visibly a matter of demographic survival.
The German government’s proposed solution: a points-based immigration system modelled on the UK’s post-Brexit framework. This is a remarkable shift. For years, Berlin dismissed the UK’s approach as restrictive. Now, facing a shortage of 400,000 skilled workers annually, the tone has changed. Chancellor Scholz recently called the UK system “balanced and effective” in a closed-door Bundestag session. The irony is not lost on observers.
But the comparison is instructive. The UK’s immigration system, introduced in 2021, prioritises skills and language proficiency. It has increased the proportion of high-skilled migrants from 30% to 55% within two years. Germany, by contrast, has long relied on asylum-based migration and free movement from the EU, which often brings lower-skilled workers. The result is a mismatch: Germany needs engineers and nurses, but its immigration pipeline delivers irregular applicants and low-wage labour.
The demographic clock is ticking. The working-age population in Germany will fall by 5 million by 2035. This is not a future problem. It is a present one. Hospitals in the east are already closing wards due to a lack of staff. The construction industry in the west is bidding up wages for electricians and plumbers. The energy transition, which depends on a massive mobilisation of skilled labour for grid upgrades and solar installations, is being slowed by a shortage of technicians.
The UK example offers a template, but it is not a panacea. The UK itself faces demographic challenges: its population is ageing, and net migration recently hit a record high of 606,000. Yet the British approach has proved politically sustainable because it is perceived as rule-based and selective. Germany’s challenge will be to implement a similar system without triggering the far-right backlash that has paralysed immigration reform in the past.
The risk is that Germany’s decline exacerbates existing tensions. In the east, where the population is older and poorer, resentment against migrants is already higher. The far-right AfD has made gains in all five eastern states. If a new immigration system is seen as favouring western employers while eastern towns continue to empty, the political consequences could be severe.
There is also the biosphere angle. A shrinking population means reduced carbon emissions in absolute terms. But per capita, Germans remain among the highest emitters in Europe. The environmental benefit of fewer people is cancelled by the inefficiency of a dispersed, car-dependent population. Eastern Germany’s depopulation has led to more car travel per person as services consolidate. Density is required for decarbonisation, not decline.
Germany must act swiftly. The UK system is not perfect, but it reflects a calm urgency that Berlin has so far lacked. The data is clear: without a coherent immigration strategy, Germany’s economic and ecological future will be compromised. The old divides may widen further as the east empties and the west scrambles for workers. The question is whether Germany can learn from Britain’s example before its own demographic winter sets in fully.
