The junta in Conakry has done it again. President Mamady Doumbouya, fresh from his second coup, signed a decree overnight. No more raw gold exports. The state will now buy all production. The refinery gate is the only exit.
Westminster's men in pinstripes will not be sleeping well. Britain's gold refiners, concentrated in the Hatton Garden quarter, rely on Guinean ore. A lot of it. The West African nation is Africa's fifth-largest gold producer. And its new rules are designed to squeeze every ounce of value from the metal before it leaves the country.
This is not a bolt from the blue. Doumbouya has been leaning on mining companies since 2022. He wants refineries, jobs, and a slice of the downstream profits. But this decree is sudden and absolute. No transition period. No exceptions.
Sources in the sector tell me the timing is political. Guinea's economy is in the dumps. Inflation is soaring. The junta needs cash, and fast. So it is taking direct control of the gold trade. The state will buy at a fixed margin, then sell the licit mineral to darlings like the UAE. Unsanctioned exports will be seized.
For London's refiners, this is a blow. The London Bullion Market Association's 'good delivery' list is the gold standard. But Guinean supply is now in doubt. The UAE and Chinese buyers are circling. They will pay cash. No questions asked.
Whitehall is watching. The Foreign Office has dialled up its contacts in the region. But there is little leverage. Doumbouya is not a man who responds to diplomatic notes. He responds to force and money.
The real pressure will come from the City. London's gold imports from Guinea have been climbing. In 2023, they were worth over £1 billion. That revenue stream is now a trickle.
Backbenchers are already briefing against the government. 'Soft on African strongmen', they will say. Expect urgent questions in the House next week.
Meanwhile, alternatives are being sought. Refiners are looking at Ghana, Burkina Faso, and even recycled gold. But that takes time. And time is something the refiners do not have. The scramble has begun.
One industry insider put it bluntly: 'This is worse than when Tanzania banned raw exports in 2018. That was phased. This is a door slammed shut.'
For now, the price of gold is unperturbed. But if the squeeze lasts, premiums on refined bullion will spike. The Bank of England's gold reserves are untouched. But every ounce that goes through London makes a market. A disruption ripples through the whole system.
Doumbouya is watching our reaction. He expects a game of nerves. The question is whether British diplomacy can find a way back to the table. Right now, the junta holds all the cards.
