A coalition of Gulf states has urgently requested British diplomatic intervention to de-escalate mounting hostilities between the United States and Iran, warning that the region stands on the precipice of a full-scale war. The appeal, issued through diplomatic channels on Wednesday, underscores the precarious nature of a conflict that could destabilise global energy markets and accelerate environmental degradation across the Middle East.
The request comes after a series of provocative exchanges, including US President Donald Trump’s renewed threats to target Iranian cultural sites and Iran’s latest breaches of the 2015 nuclear deal. The Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, fear they would be caught in the crossfire of any military confrontation. Their reliance on British mediation reflects a historical precedent: the UK has long served as a diplomatic bridge between Western powers and the region, notably during the Iran nuclear negotiations.
From a climate and energy perspective, the stakes could not be higher. The Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil passes, remains a flashpoint. Any disruption would send carbon energy prices soaring, undermining the fragile global economic recovery and diverting investment from renewable energy transitions. The International Energy Agency has already warned that a prolonged crisis could derail net-zero targets by forcing nations to stockpile fossil fuels.
Britain’s role is complicated by its own post-Brexit realignment. The government must balance its “special relationship” with Washington against the urgent need to prevent a conflict that would trigger a refugee crisis, worsen air quality from burning oil wells, and release carbon pulses that would render climate targets unachievable. The Gulf states have effectively positioned the UK as a necessary neutral party, given France and Germany’s reduced influence in Tehran.
However, the request also highlights a collective failure of diplomacy. For years, Gulf monarchies have funded warming-denial narratives while purchasing advanced weaponry, inflaming regional tensions. The current crisis is a direct consequence of that arming cycle, now threatening to combust. A war would not only devastate lives but also annihilate any remaining credibility for oil-producing states in global climate negotiations.
The British Foreign Office has acknowledged the request but offered no specifics. Sources indicate that Foreign Secretary David Lammy may travel to Riyadh within days to coordinate a joint European initiative. But the window for de-escalation is closing rapidly. The physical reality is that any military exchange in the Gulf would incinerate months of carbon in days, pushing us past irreversible tipping points.
As a science correspondent, I must stress that this is not just a diplomatic crisis but an Earth system emergency. The region’s average temperature has already risen by 2 degrees Celsius, making it one of the fastest-warming places on the planet. A war would compound this by releasing soot and aerosols that accelerate Arctic ice melt. We are, quite literally, running out of time to avert a biosphere collapse.
The Gulf states’ plea to Britain is a desperate recognition that their own militarism has failed. Now, the world watches whether London can orchestrate a ceasefire before the next climate stressor turns into a full-blown catastrophe.
