The City’s patience with White House fiscal incontinence has long been wearing thin, but this week’s collapse of Washington’s Iran strike plan is a reminder that geopolitical risk is still the ghost at the feast. Our sources in the Gulf confirm that no fewer than three major oil monarchies have formally requested that His Majesty’s Government assume the lead in de-escalating tensions with Tehran. This is not an act of charity, it is a capital flight waiting to happen.
The so-called “war cabinet” of President Biden’s national security team had prepared a graduated strikes package against Iranian nuclear and missile facilities in response to the Arak centrifuge incident. Yet when the Emiratis, Saudis and Qataris were presented with the proposal, they simply refused the use of their airspace for staging operations. The Emirati Foreign Minister’s private message was blunt: “We will not be the forward base for a conflict that will send oil through $200 and destroy our sovereign wealth funds’ returns for a decade.”
The arithmetic is brutally simple. Gulf states hold over $2 trillion in sovereign wealth assets, heavily weighted toward US Treasuries and Western equities. A full-scale Iran confrontation would crash bonds, spike volatility and trigger margin calls across the region. This is exactly the kind of systemic risk that Larry Fink warns about, but which Uncle Sam seems happy to underwrite.
Enter Whitehall. The Foreign Office has been quietly resuscitating the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) framework under a new label: the Persian Gulf Security Forum. Our mole in the Treasury confirms that Chancellor Hunt has authorised the use of UK Export Finance guarantees to back any negotiated settlement that ensures oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. This is not generosity, it is a hedge against gilt yields spiking on a war premium.
The market reaction has been telling. The pound sterling actually strengthened against the dollar on the news, a rare event. Bond vigilantes are breathing a sigh of relief that risk of a 1973-style oil shock has been dialled back. The FTSE 100’s energy and defence sectors sold off modestly, but the overall index rose: the market is pricing in a lower risk premium.
Yet we must cast a cold eye on this diplomatic triumph. The Gulf states’ turn to London is an indictment of Washington’s fiscal credibility. Why trust a Treasury that cannot pass a budget, that carries a debt-to-GDP ratio approaching 120%, and whose central bank is actively losing its ability to manage a soft landing? The Bank of England’s balance sheet may be bloated, but at least it is not printing money to finance war bonds.
The key watchpoint is the 10-year Treasury yield. If it breaks above 5.50% on this news, it will signal that the market does not believe diplomacy will hold. Conversely, a fall below 4.75% would indicate that the Gulf’s bet on British pragmatism is actually reducing global risk. That is the number I am watching as I trade my morning coffee.
Of course, this is not all altruism. The Gulf states are protecting their own books. They know that a 50% drawdown in equities would turn their post-oil diversification dreams into a nightmare. Better to outsource the problem to a country with a standing army and a reputation for measured intervention.
The real test will come in Tehran. The mullahs have been watching the US’s apparent loss of nerve. They will now calculate that they can push harder, enrich more uranium, and extract further concessions. The UK’s negotiating team, led by veteran diplomat Sir Simon McDonald, must produce a deal that includes snapback sanctions and verifiable inspections. Without that, the market will eventually conclude that this is just a delay, not a solution.
Bottom line: The markets are optimistic but not complacent. The volatility index (VIX) remains above 20, suggesting investors are hedging against the possibility that British diplomacy fails where American firepower was feared. For now, gilt-edged diplomacy is the flavour of the month. But remember, the biggest risk in any negotiation is the one you do not see coming. In this case, it may be the Iranian rial crashing through 100,000 to the dollar, triggering a regime collapse and a vacuum that no one wants to fill.
Stay hedged. Stay cynical. This is Alastair Thorne, signing off.
