A series of airstrikes between United States and Iranian forces in the Persian Gulf has escalated tensions to a level not seen since the 2019 drone incident, with British intelligence sources now expressing grave concerns that a miscalculation could trigger a broader regional war. The strikes, which targeted naval assets and coastal installations over the past 48 hours, represent a significant departure from the proxy warfare that has characterised US-Iran relations in recent years.
According to satellite imagery analysed at the Oxford Climate and Security Institute, three Iranian fast-attack craft were destroyed near the Strait of Hormuz, while US positions in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates came under missile fire. The exchange follows weeks of increasing harassment of commercial shipping by Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps vessels.
British officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, described the situation as “perilous”. One senior Foreign Office source told the Guardian that “the risk of a spiral into full-scale conflict is now higher than at any point since the Tanker War”. The source emphasised that neither side appears willing to de-escalate, and that diplomatic channels remain clogged by mutual recrimination.
The physical geography of the Gulf compounds the danger. The Strait of Hormuz a 33-kilometre-wide chokepoint through which 20% of the world’s oil passes is a tinderbox. A single well-placed mine or anti-ship missile could ignite a chain reaction that would halt global energy flows, sending prices through the roof and triggering economic chaos akin to the 1973 oil crisis.
Yet the climate dimension adds a layer of urgency that distinguishes this crisis from previous Gulf confrontations. The region is already experiencing extreme heat events that push the limits of human survivability. A full-blown war would not only exacerbate carbon emissions from burning infrastructure but also divert resources away from desperately needed adaptation efforts. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has identified the Middle East as a “climate hotspot” where water scarcity and heatwaves are projected to intensify.
Dr. Layla al-Sayegh, a geopolitical analyst at the University of Oxford, noted that “every barrel of oil burned in a conflict is a barrel that cannot be used to fund the energy transition. We are locked in a vicious cycle: fossil fuel dependence fuels geopolitical tension, which in turn impedes our ability to escape that dependence.”
The technological dimension offers a faint hope. Precision-guided munitions and real-time surveillance reduce the likelihood of accidental escalation, but they also lower the threshold for offensive action. Both the US and Iran possess significant cyber capabilities that could target each other’s energy infrastructure, potentially causing cascading failures far beyond the battlefield.
For now, the world holds its breath. The British government has urged restraint and called for an emergency session of the UN Security Council. But as the sun sets over the Gulf, the silhouettes of warships and the glow of burning oil platforms serve as a stark reminder that in a warming world, conflict is not just a human tragedy but an ecological catastrophe in the making.
