Uncovered intelligence documents, seen by this newspaper, suggest the White House is losing its grip on a spiralling proxy conflict with Iran. A classified assessment from British intelligence, dated this week, warns that the Trump administration's strategy of maximum pressure has emboldened hardliners in Tehran while alienating key allies. Sources confirm that MI6 analysts believe the risk of a full-blown escalation through proxy forces in Iraq, Syria and Yemen is now higher than at any point since the 2019 drone strike that killed General Qasem Soleimani.
The assessment paints a grim picture. It states that the administration's 'maximum pressure' campaign has 'failed to achieve its stated objectives of forcing Iranian capitulation' and instead 'increased the likelihood of miscalculated retaliation by Iranian-aligned militias'. The document, circulating among a small circle of senior officials, warns that Trump's shifting messaging and erratic policy decisions have created 'strategic ambiguity' that Tehran is exploiting. One source, a former senior diplomat with direct knowledge of the briefings, told me: 'The British are deeply worried. They see an administration that talks tough but has no coherent endgame. The proxy war is already here, and it's getting worse.'
The assessment highlights three key flashpoints: the occupation of Iraqi oil fields by US-backed forces, the continuing blockade of Yemeni ports by Saudi Arabia, and the escalating drone attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure. Each, the document argues, could trigger an Iranian-backed response that draws in US troops. 'The Iranians have learned to fight asymmetrically. They don't need a navy to shut the Strait of Hormuz. A few speedboats and Chinese missiles will do,' a former CIA officer remarked.
Meanwhile, the administration's own internal communications betray confusion. Emails obtained by this paper show a State Department official pleading with the National Security Council for 'clearer direction on Iran policy' as recently as last week. The response? A terse 'stand by'. Trust between Washington and London is frayed. British officials have privately complained that they are being kept in the dark about military movements. One described the intelligence relationship as 'one-way traffic'.
The assessment also notes that the EU's failure to provide meaningful sanctions relief has pushed Iran closer to China and Russia, complicating any diplomatic off-ramp. 'The Europeans are spectators,' a senior diplomat said. 'Tehran is playing a long game, and Trump is playing to the base.'
This is not a war that will be declared. It will arrive piecemeal. A drone strike on a Saudi refinery. A rocket attack on the Green Zone. A naval skirmish in the Gulf. And then the calculations will change. The British intelligence document concludes with a stark warning: 'The risk of unintended escalation through proxies is now the greatest threat to regional stability. The United States appears neither prepared nor willing to manage this risk.'
In the Oval Office, where the President reportedly cycles through advisers with alarming frequency, there is little appetite for nuance. The hardliners have won the argument. But as the proxy war heats up, the question becomes: who is really in control?
