The flames that consumed homes in Belfast last night have reignited a political firestorm. As smoke rises from the streets, so does the pressure on Whitehall. The government's pledge of an immediate review is a classic move. A review buys time. But time is a luxury Belfast residents don't have.
‘I will never forget watching my home burn,’ a resident told me. That quote will be repeated in Westminster today. It will be weaponised. The Labour frontbench is already demanding answers. The DUP is pushing for a security crackdown. The Alliance Party wants dialogue. Everyone wants something different.
Let's look at the power dynamics. The Northern Ireland Secretary is caught between a rock and a hard place. The Loyalist community feels betrayed by the protocol. The Nationalist community feels threatened by rising tensions. Both sides are right. Neither side is listening.
The review is a classic Whitehall dodge. It kicks the can down the road. But the road is on fire. The Prime Minister cannot afford another crisis. Not with the polls where they are. The last thing Downing Street needs is Belfast burning on the evening news.
Backbench MPs from Northern Ireland are furious. They have been warning about this for months. The government ignored them. Now they are calling for the Northern Ireland Secretary's head. The whispering in the Lobby is that he is a dead man walking. A reshuffle is coming. This might be his final chapter.
The real game is about the protocol. The EU is watching. The White House is watching. The government knows it has to find a solution. But every solution has a political cost. Concede too much to the Loyalists, and you lose the Nationalists. Concede too much to the EU, and you lose the Brexiteers. There is no easy path.
The review will be led by a senior civil servant. That is a signal. No politician wants to touch this. Everyone is running for cover. But the clock is ticking. The next outbreak of violence could be just a spark away.
In Whitehall pubs tonight, the talk will be of who gets the blame. The Northern Ireland Office is braced for a storm. The Secretary of State is preparing his defence. The real question is whether the Prime Minister will throw him under the bus.
The people of Belfast do not care about these games. They want safety. They want peace. They want their homes to stop burning. But the game is all that Westminster understands.
I suspect we will see a flurry of phone calls today. The Taoiseach will be on the line. The US ambassador will be making inquiries. Everyone wants to be seen to be doing something. But doing something and solving something are very different.
The review will take months. It will produce a report. The report will be debated. Then it will be forgotten. Until the next fire.
That is the grim reality. The policy of containment is failing. The people who pay the price are the ones whose homes go up in flames. The government pledges a review. But what they really need is a strategy. And that requires leadership. Something in short supply these days.
