The steady decline of communist parties in India, once a formidable force in several states, is reshaping the country’s political landscape with potential spillover effects across South Asia. A new report from the Royal Institute for International Affairs at Chatham House warns that their diminishing influence could create a power vacuum in regions where they served as key intermediaries between the central government and local populations.
Over the past two decades, the electoral performance of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and its allies has weakened considerably. In West Bengal, where the CPI(M) governed for 34 years until 2011, its vote share has dropped to 4.5 percent in the 2024 general election from 43 percent in 2004. Similar trends are evident in Kerala, where the party’s historic stronghold is now contested by a resurgent BJP and a consolidating Congress.
The report, titled ‘The Retreat of the Red Flag: India’s Communist Decline and Regional Consequences’, attributes this decline to three principal factors: a shift in voter priorities towards development and governance, the fragmentation of traditional class-based allegiances, and the rise of Hindu nationalism as a competing ideology. The think tank argues that communist parties have struggled to adapt their agrarian-focused messaging to an increasingly urban and aspirational electorate.
Strategic implications extend beyond India. In Nepal and Bangladesh, where leftist parties have long drawn inspiration from Indian counterparts, the waning of Indian communism could diminish ideological cohesion and cross-border solidarity. The report notes that communist parties in these countries have historically relied on the CPI(M)’s organisational expertise and strategic guidance. Without this anchor, leftist movements in the region may splinter or align with other geopolitical forces, including China.
China’s growing economic footprint in South Asia adds another dimension. While Beijing has avoided open endorsement of communist parties in India, it has cultivated ties with left-leaning groups to advance its Belt and Road Initiative. The decline of these parties could limit China’s soft-power channels, potentially pushing it towards more direct state-to-state engagement, which could heighten tensions with New Delhi.
Domestically, the vacuum left by communist parties is being filled by regional parties and the BJP. In West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress has absorbed much of the communist vote, while in Kerala, the BJP has made inroads among lower-caste communities once loyal to the CPI(M). This realignment may further polarise Indian politics along religious and caste lines, weakening the secular, class-based coalitions that communists helped sustain.
The report urges Indian policymakers to monitor these shifts carefully. While the decline of communism may seem a straightforward victory for centrist politics, the removal of established political intermediaries could destabilise state-level governance and deepen regional disparities. It recommends strengthening local democratic institutions to manage the transition and prevent the emergence of more extreme alternatives.
As India moves towards the 2029 general election, the trajectory of its communist parties will be a bellwether for the resilience of its federal democracy. The fading of the red flag, the report concludes, does not herald a stable centre but a fluid and uncertain period in South Asian politics.
