Peru’s presidential election has entered its final stretch with opinion polls indicating the closest contest in decades. The two leading candidates, Keiko Fujimori and Pedro Castillo, represent sharply divergent visions for a nation grappling with deepening insecurity and economic stagnation. The outcome will have significant implications for Peru’s institutional stability and its role in the region.
Violent crime has surged across the country, with recent data from the National Institute of Statistics showing a 30% increase in homicides over the past year. In Lima, carjackings and armed robberies have become commonplace. The government’s response, hampered by a fragmented police force and a judiciary widely seen as corrupt, has been ineffective. Both candidates have promised tougher policing, but critics argue that populist measures risk undermining civil liberties without addressing underlying causes.
The economy, meanwhile, remains in a fragile state. GDP contracted by 11% in 2020, the deepest recession in three decades. Unemployment has soared, and informal workers, who make up 70% of the labour force, have been hit hardest. Tax revenues have fallen, limiting the government’s ability to finance social programmes. The pandemic has exacerbated these trends, with Peru recording one of the highest per capita death tolls globally.
Fujimori, a conservative and the daughter of former president Alberto Fujimori, has focused her campaign on law-and-order messages. She has pledged to reduce crime through tougher sentencing and expanded police powers. On the economy, she advocates pro-business policies including tax cuts for corporations and streamlining of regulations. Her opponents, however, point to her father’s authoritarian record and the corruption allegations that have surrounded her own political career.
Castillo, a left-wing union leader and teacher from the rural Andes, has tapped into deep dissatisfaction with the political elite. He has proposed nationalising key industries, rewriting the constitution, and increasing public investment in health and education. His rhetoric resonates in the highlands, where poverty rates are as high as 40%, but unnerves investors and centrists who fear a tilt towards authoritarian populism.
The race remains too close to call. A recent Ipsos survey gave Fujimori a narrow lead of 42% to 38%, with 20% of voters undecided. The eventual winner will face immediate pressure to stabilise the economy and restore public safety. Many Peruvians have lost faith in democratic institutions: trust in Congress and the judiciary is at an all-time low.
International observers have expressed concern about the potential for electoral disputes. In 2020, the country saw three presidents in a week, a symptom of profound political dysfunction. Should either candidate reject the result, the crisis could escalate. The United States and the European Union have both called for a peaceful, transparent process.
Peru’s next president will need to navigate a fractured political landscape while addressing the urgent demands of a weary populace. Without decisive action, the cycle of instability may continue. For now, the country waits.
