The knives are out in Lima. Peru’s election isn’t just about who runs the country. It’s about who runs the streets. And right now, the streets are winning.
Sources close to the UK trade delegation, currently bunkered in a Miraflores hotel, tell me the mood is grim. They came bearing briefcases full of investment promises. They are leaving with a single, sobering lesson: crime pays. Not for the perpetrators, but for the political class that has allowed it to fester.
The numbers tell a brutal story. Homicides up 20%. Extortion, a cancer on small businesses. The UK’s own Foreign Office warns of “high levels of violent crime” in the run-up to the vote. But the official line is cautious. Don’t want to spook the markets, old boy.
Yet the markets are spooked anyway. A senior trade advisor leaked me a draft assessment. It talks about “chronic insecurity” deterring investment. It mentions British firms “re-evaluating risk.” The language is diplomatic. The meaning is clear: Peru is becoming a pariah for capital.
And the voters? They are reacting. Not with hope, but with fear. Polling data from Ipsos, seen by my team, shows security as the number one issue. Above the economy. Above corruption. That is a change. A dangerous one.
Because fear makes people do desperate things. It tilts the dial towards strongmen. Towards the hard right. There is chatter in the cafes of San Isidro about a potential Fujimori comeback. Not the old man, but the daughter? The name is still toxic. But in a climate of fear, toxicity becomes a virtue.
The trade mission’s report, marked “Sensitive – Commercial”, will land on the desks of ministers this week. Off the record, they admit the UK’s Peru strategy is “up in the air.” Post-Brexit Britain needs new markets. Peru was supposed to be one. Now it looks like a trap.
There is talk of a backbench rebellion if ministers try to bail out British firms caught in the crossfire. The pork barrel is empty. The mood in Westminster is one of quiet fury. Why did we ever get into this?
The election itself is a mess. The frontrunner, a leftist economist, has never held office. His main rival, a conservative lawyer, is polling at 8%. The rest are a grab bag of unknowns and has-beens. It is a race to the bottom.
And the bottom is where the voters are. They are voting with their feet. Emigration is up. The rich are leaving for Miami. The middle class is eyeing Chile. The poor are stuck. They will cast a ballot, but they know it is a placebo.
The UK trade mission will leave before the results come in. They will file their report. It will be buried, but it shouldn’t be. Because what is happening in Peru is a warning. It is a bleak reminder that when the state fails to protect its citizens, the citizens fail the state. And the investors flee.
One diplomat put it to me bluntly: “We came here to sell them things. They just want someone to stop the bleeding.” The question is: who will?
