The fragile ceasefire in the Gulf has shattered. Iran and the United States launched tit-for-tat strikes last night, sending shockwaves through Whitehall. The Royal Navy is scrambling to reinforce its presence in the Strait of Hormuz. Sources in the Ministry of Defence confirm HMS Defender and HMS Duncan are being deployed to shadow oil tankers. The message from Number 10 is clear: protect trade at all costs.
This is no drill. The ceasefire, never more than a half-hearted gesture, collapsed within hours. US Central Command claims its strikes targeted Iranian missile batteries that threatened shipping. Tehran retaliated with a barrage on a US naval support facility in Bahrain. The timing is catastrophic. Global oil markets are already spiking. The cost at the pump will hit voters in the wallet. Labour is already demanding answers.
Downing Street insiders tell me this is the worst crisis since the Falklands. The Foreign Office is frantically working the phones. Calls to Washington and Tehran are going unanswered. The Joint Intelligence Committee has convened an emergency session. The worry is escalation. A single miscalculation could trigger a full-scale conflict.
Ministers are avoiding the cameras. But backbenchers are bristling. Some Conservative MPs are calling for an emergency recall of Parliament. They want a vote on any military commitment. The PM is caught between the US alliance and domestic caution. The defence secretary is due to make a statement this afternoon. Expect careful wording and no promises.
The Naval deployments are a visible show of force. But they also expose our vulnerability. The Gulf is a narrow choke point. A couple of mines could shut down a third of the world's oil. The Treasury is already modelling the impact of sustained high prices. Recession fears are creeping back.
What is not being said: our intelligence community expected this. Briefings I have seen suggest the ceasefire was a tactical pause, not a permanent solution. Both sides were rearming. The strikes were inevitable. The question now is whether this is a spike or a sustained campaign.
The UN Security Council is meeting tonight. Expect no resolution. Russia and China will veto anything substantive. Britain will be left alone with the US and a few Gulf allies. The old certainties of collective security are gone.
For the public, the immediate impact is invisible. No air raid sirens here. But the cost of living crisis just got worse. Petrol prices will climb. Heating bills will follow. And the government has no quick fix.
I am hearing from a senior naval source that the Royal Navy is operating on a knife edge. The crews are exhausted from years of overstretch. A long-term deployment will stretch resources thin. The Americans are bearing the brunt, but we cannot afford to look weak.
This is a test of leadership. The PM needs to show resolve without bluster. The opposition will offer support, but only if kept in the loop. The coming days will define this government.
Stay tuned. This one is not going away.
