Tehran blinked first. A diplomatic source confirms that Iran has agreed to readmit International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors, ending a three-month standoff that had rattled global markets and spooked the Gulf states. The news broke via a terse statement from Vice President J.D. Vance, who wasted no time framing it as a triumph for the White House's 'maximum pressure' strategy. 'They tested our resolve,' Vance told reporters. 'They found it solid.'
But the backstory is far messier than the official line. My contacts inside the Foreign Office suggest the breakthrough came after a quiet dinner in Geneva between Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri and a senior E.U. diplomat. No Americans at the table, apparently. The deal: inspectors get full access to Natanz and Fordow, including the underground centrifuges. In return, the U.S. quietly unfreezes $6 billion in Iraqi-held oil revenues. A classic swap, dressed up as a concession.
The timing is everything. Israel was days away from a unilateral strike, according to Mossad-linked sources. The IDF had already moved assets into position. Netanyahu's office is furious - they see this as a repeat of 2015's 'deal of the century' that gave a nuclear Iran a decade to run. Expect a blistering statement from Jerusalem within hours.
Inside the Beltway, the crack teams are already spinning. Hardliners are calling it a 'pyrrhic victory' that legitimises the ayatollahs. But the polling? It's a gift for the administration. A fatigued public wants de-escalation, not another Middle Eastern quagmire. Vance's approval rating ticks up a point - and that's the only number that matters in this town.
The inspectors land in Tehran on Friday. Expect procedural delays, but the cameras will catch the moment. A win is a win, even if the terms were written in a backroom.
What happens next? The thorny issue of drone parts - Iranian-made Shaheds found in Ukrainian wheat fields. That's the next fight. For now, though, the lobby is a little quieter. The game goes on.
