In a development that has sent shockwaves through the international community and caused a noticeable spike in sales of overpriced airport gin, the recent escalation between Israel and Iran has, according to experts, actually strengthened Tehran’s negotiating position. Yes, you read that correctly. The same Iran that has been accused of everything from nuclear skulduggery to funding proxy militias has somehow emerged from this dust-up looking like the clever bloke in the pub who just won the argument without raising his voice.
Meanwhile, the UK Foreign Office, presumably staffed by people who still think “sanctions” is a type of Mediterranean cheese, is frantically reviewing its strategy. I imagine the review is taking place in a windowless room where the only light comes from a flickering PowerPoint slide titled “How to Look Tough While Doing Absolutely Nothing.” The strategy review itself is a masterpiece of bureaucratic inertia. It probably involves at least three committees, a feasibility study, and a memo that will be lost in the post. By the time the review is complete, the Iran-Israel situation will have resolved itself, and the UK will be left holding a damp firework and a bill for the gin consumed during the deliberations.
Let’s talk about Iran’s hand, which is now reportedly “strengthened.” How, you ask? Well, by not actually doing anything. That’s the beauty of modern geopolitics. Iran has mastered the art of suggesting it might do something terrible, then not doing it, and then being rewarded for its restraint. It’s like a child who threatens to smash a vase, doesn’t smash it, and then gets a biscuit for good behaviour. Tehran now has a seat at the table, a stronger hand, and presumably a smug look on its collective face.
The UK? Oh, the UK is busy reviewing its sanctions strategy. Sanctions, those wonderfully ineffective tools that make governments feel like they’re doing something while achieving about as much as a stern letter to the editor. The Foreign Office’s review will likely conclude that sanctions should be “targeted” and “proportionate,” which is diplomatic code for “we will sanction a few minor officials who have no influence and call it a day.” Expect a flurry of press releases about “standing up to aggression” and “upholding international law,” all while Iran’s hand gets stronger and the UK’s voice gets fainter.
This whole farce would be laughable if it weren’t so terrifying. But since it is both terrifying and absurd, I’ll do what any self-respecting gonzo journalist would do: file this report from a bar in Heathrow Terminal 5, where the gin is overpriced but the indignation is free. The Iran-Israel flare-up has been a gift to the do-nothing diplomats, the strategic reviewers, and the sanctions aficionados. It has also been a gift to Tehran, which now knows that the West will threaten, bluster, and review, but ultimately do very little.
So raise a glass of that overpriced gin. Here’s to Iran’s stronger hand, the UK’s review cycle, and the glorious, tragicomic theatre of international relations. I’m off to find a packet of crisps that costs less than my mortgage. Biff out.
