Tehran has poured cold water on diplomatic efforts. The Iranian foreign ministry said talks are a 'dead end.' No give. No compromise. The regime is dug in.
Downing Street is rattled. Whitehall sources say defence chiefs have privately concluded that President Trump needs a war to end. Not just any war. A clean, decisive victory. But Iran won't play ball.
The briefing I'm getting? Nervous. Very nervous. The mood inside the MOD is that the White House is running out of patience. And options.
Talk to anyone in the Lobby. They'll tell you the same. The backbench pressure on Starmer is building. Hardliners want him to distance the UK from Washington. But No.10 knows that would be a disaster for the special relationship.
I'm told the PM's private view is that Trump's frustration is understandable. But the British military is stretched thin. Another conflict? The generals are sweating.
Here's the rub. Iran calculates that Trump will blink. They think he can't stomach a prolonged engagement. They may be right. But the betting in Westminster is that a strike on nuclear facilities is coming. It's a question of when. Not if.
The real game? It's inside the Cabinet. Defence Secretary John Healey is being pulled in two directions. The MOD wants to avoid a quagmire. But the Foreign Office sees an opportunity to reset relations with the Gulf states.
Privately, officials concede that the UK has little influence. We are passengers. Along for the ride.
For now, watch the polls. If they shift against Starmer, the rebellion will start. Quietly. In corners. But it will come.
