British intelligence has confirmed a sobering reality: Iran has struck 20 US military sites since the outbreak of hostilities. This is not a series of isolated incidents but a deliberate, coordinated campaign. Each strike is a data point in a larger strategic pivot: Tehran is testing US force posture, response times, and air defence gaps.
Let’s be clear about the threat vector. These attacks are not solely kinetic. Some are cyber intrusions aimed at logistics nodes and command-and-control networks. Imagine the US force multipliers: logistics, intelligence fusion, rapid deployment. Iran is targeting those precisely. The goal is to erode US military readiness without triggering a full-scale war.
Consider the hardware involved. Iran has employed a mix of Shahed drones, ballistic missiles, and loitering munitions. The surprising element is the integration of electronic warfare to blind sensors. This indicates Russian or Chinese technical assistance. The strikes have hit bases in Iraq, Syria, and reportedly an undisclosed location in the Gulf. But the pattern suggests Iran is waging a distributed, attritive campaign.
What does this mean for the strategic landscape? The US is now forced into a defensive posture across the Middle East, which degrades its ability to project power elsewhere, notably in the Indo-Pacific. This is Iran’s chess move: tie down American assets while proxies in Yemen, Lebanon, and Syria increase pressure on Israel and Saudi Arabia.
However, the intelligence failure here is British. Why did it take 20 strikes to issue a warning? This suggests either gaps in SIGINT or a reluctance to disclose the scale of the attacks to avoid panic. Either way, the public was left in the dark. The MoD must explain how these intercepts were missed or why they were classified.
Looking ahead, the next phase will likely involve strikes on civilian infrastructure. Iranian doctrine views energy and shipping as legitimate targets. The US Navy’s Aegis ships are tasked with protecting the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz. But ASW and mine countermeasures have been neglected for years. A single mine or unmanned underwater vehicle could close a chokepoint, causing global oil prices to spike.
Western allies must now harden cyber defences and pre-position air defence assets. The US should consider removing restrictions on striking Iranian launch platforms inside its borders. But that risk escalation. For now, the initiative belongs to Tehran. They are dictating the tempo, and London is playing catch-up.
