The Iranian regime has called Washington's bluff. A fleet of oil tankers, under Revolutionary Guard escort, has slipped through the US Navy's cordon in the Strait of Hormuz. This is not a secret operation. Tehran broadcast it. A direct challenge to President Trump's 'maximum pressure' campaign.
Westminster is scrambling. The Foreign Office has confirmed it will request an emergency UN Security Council session. But the mood in Whitehall is grim. This is a textbook Iranian play. They have calculated that the US will not fire the first shot. So far, they are right.
Look at the details. Seven tankers, Iranian-flagged, loaded at Kharg Island. They sailed through the strait at night, hugging the territorial waters of Oman. The US Fifth Fleet shadowed them. No engagement. No confrontation. Just a game of chicken that Iran won.
What does this mean for London? The UK has been a staunch ally of the US on Iran. We have a naval presence in the Gulf. But our fleet is stretched. We have Brexit border patrols to run. The Royal Navy's two carriers are both in dry dock. Embarrassing.
The backbench mood is volatile. Hardliners on the Tory right are demanding a tougher response. They want the UK to unilaterally seize Iranian assets. But the Foreign Office knows that route leads to escalation. The shadow cabinet is quiet, waiting for the government to trip.
I have spoken to a senior Whitehall source. Off the record. They said: 'We are in uncharted waters. The US strategy was built on bluff. Now that it's called, we have no plan B.' This is dangerous. A divided Cabinet. A distracted Prime Minister. And a crisis that could spiral.
The key player to watch is the new Foreign Secretary. He is untested. His first major test. Will he back Washington's next move, whatever it is? Or will he break ranks and push for a diplomatic off-ramp? The smart money is on the latter. He knows the UN route is slow. But it buys time.
What happens next? The tankers are heading for Syria. They will dock at Baniyas. The oil will go to Assad's war machine. Iran will try again. The US will have to respond. Either escalate with a real blockade, or back down. Either way, the Gulf is a powder keg.
For the UK, this is a moment of truth. Do we follow the US down the path of confrontation? Or do we lead a European effort to revive the nuclear deal? The answer will define this government's foreign policy legacy. Watch the whips. Watch the leaks. The game is on.
