The Islamic Republic’s gambit to turn the Strait of Hormuz into a global hostage is falling apart. Sources close to the negotiations confirm that a provisional agreement to reopen the strategic waterway is imminent, ending weeks of naval brinkmanship that sent oil prices soaring and exposed the fragility of international energy supply lines. The deal, brokered through backchannel talks in Muscat and Doha, would see Iranian patrols withdraw from critical shipping lanes in exchange for the partial lifting of sanctions on its oil exports.
But the devil, as always, is in the details — and the trust deficit. For now, tankers carrying millions of barrels per day are idling off the coast of Fujairah, their insurers demanding triple premiums. Crews report being harassed by IRGC speedboats under the pretext of 'inspection.
' The stunt was always poorly disguised: Iran wanted leverage before the return of snapback UN sanctions in October. But with the backchannel deal capsizing the hostage scenario, Tehran may have lost its last card. 'They overplayed their hand,' a Gulf diplomat told me, speaking under condition of anonymity.
'The world doesn't negotiate extortion.' The question now: can the deal hold? Or will Iran’s hardliners scuttle it before the ink dries?
