The fragile ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon held through the night. No fresh exchanges of fire reported across the Blue Line. Whitehall breathing again. But the brass in the FCDO know that relief is temporary.
The deal, brokered after four days of intense backchanneling, saw both sides pull back. Israeli jets grounded. Hezbollah fighters ordered to stand down. The question now: who blinks first?
For now, the UNIFIL patrols are back out. And the British contingent? Praised by both sides. That's the bit the PM will be clinging to. Sources say the Foreign Secretary's phone hasn't stopped buzzing. Calls from Washington, Paris, and Riyadh. All congratulating. All waiting for the next misstep.
Let's be clear about what happened. Last Tuesday, an Israeli airstrike hit a suspected weapons convoy outside Baalbek. Hezbollah responded with a volley of rockets towards the Golan. No casualties, but the provocation was deliberate. A test of the new government's resolve. And the test was passed, just.
Behind the scenes, the lobbying was furious. The US wanted a strong Israeli response. France pushed for restraint. Britain played the honest broker. It helps that we still have good lines into both Tel Aviv and Beirut. Old colonial ties? Call it what you like. It works.
The key moment came on Thursday. A leaked draft UN resolution, hinting at sanctions on Hezbollah's political wing, was pulled at the last minute. Backroom deal. Lebanon's Prime Minister agreed to ramp up border security. Israel got its security guarantees. Everyone saved face.
But the real story is the shift in Whitehall's Middle East policy. Quietly, incrementally, Britain is reasserting a role. Not as America's sidekick, but as a separate player. The PM sees this as a wedge issue. The Labour left love the multilateralism. The Tory right like the tough stance on Hezbollah. A rare sweet spot.
Of course, the opposition is circling. Shadow Foreign Secretary already demanding a parliamentary debate. Want assurances that we aren't being dragged into 'another endless entanglement'. The PM's office pushing back. Saying this is peacekeeping, not warfighting. A distinction that might not hold.
What next? Don't expect this truce to become a lasting peace. Too many players with too many agendas. Iran will restock Hezbollah. Israel will keep striking convoys. The cycle is baked in. But for now, a win. A modest, fragile, but undeniable win.
I asked a senior FCO man last night, over a drink, if this changes things. 'It changes the weather,' he said. 'Not the climate.' Indeed.
