The game has changed. Israel has ordered a mass evacuation of southern Lebanon, a clear signal that its ground offensive is about to escalate dramatically. This is not a drill. This is a calculated move, designed to flush out Hezbollah fighters and civilians from the border region.
Sources inside Whitehall tell me the mood in Number 10 is grim. The Foreign Office is scrambling to assess the fallout. They know this could spiral. The evacuation order, covering dozens of villages, is the largest since the 2006 war. It suggests the IDF is preparing for a prolonged incursion.
Why now? Two reasons. First, the political calculus in Jerusalem. Netanyahu is under immense pressure from his right flank to deliver a decisive blow against Hezbollah. Second, the military logic. Clearing the border area of civilians gives the IDF more room to operate, to use heavy firepower without restraint.
But here is the rub. This move risks a humanitarian catastrophe. The UN estimates that up to 100,000 people could be displaced. Lebanon is already on its knees. The economy is in freefall. Its institutions are fragile. An influx of refugees could be the breaking point.
Whitehall is watching the polling data closely. The British public is uneasy. Memories of Iraq and Afghanistan are fresh. Any suggestion of UK involvement, even in a support role, could provoke a backbench rebellion. Labour is already sharpening its knives.
What about Hezbollah? They will not sit idle. They have rockets. They have tunnels. They have no intention of fighting a conventional war. They will draw the IDF into the villages, into the narrow streets, where a well-placed ambush can inflict heavy casualties.
This is a high-stakes gamble for Netanyahu. If it works, he secures his legacy. If it fails, the consequences for Israel, for Lebanon, for the entire region, are catastrophic. The game is on.
